1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 13 pts · 20 played
DLDLL
0–2Full time
Hamburger SV
13th · 19 pts · 19 played
DLDDD
1. FC Heidenheim38.4%fair odds 2.60
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.90
Hamburger SV36.0%fair odds 2.78
Expected goals1.51 – 1.46total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Hamburger SV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.39
- 2–18.6%11.69
- 1–28.2%12.14
- 1–07.2%13.95
- 0–16.9%14.53
- 2–26.2%16.05
- 2–05.9%17.02
- 0–05.7%17.43
- 0–25.4%18.35
- 3–14.3%23.19
Winning margin
7.3%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 13.63
11.6%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 8.65
19.5%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 5.13
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.90
18.8%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 5.33
10.7%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 9.32
6.5%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 15.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Hamburger SV goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 38.4% | 38.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Hamburger SV win | 36.0% | 35.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 54.7% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.4% | 58.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.51 | 1.47 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.46 | 1.40 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win38.4%2.60
- Draw25.6%3.90
- Hamburger SV win36.0%2.78
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw64.0%1.56
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Hamburger SV74.4%1.34
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw61.6%1.62
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim51.7%1.94
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV48.3%2.07
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.2%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.76
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.517.9%5.57
- Under 1.519.8%5.05
- Under 2.543.0%2.32
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes60.4%1.66
- No39.6%2.52
- Yes and over 2.548.5%2.06
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes20.8%4.80
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Hamburger SV win and yes19.6%5.09
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.578.0%1.28
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.544.6%2.24
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.519.4%5.15
- Hamburger SV over 0.576.7%1.30
- Hamburger SV over 1.542.7%2.34
- Hamburger SV over 2.518.0%5.55
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet23.3%4.29
- Hamburger SV clean sheet22.0%4.54
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil17.6%5.69
- Hamburger SV win to nil16.3%6.13
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.518.9%5.29
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.57.3%13.63
- Hamburger SV +1.581.1%1.23
- Hamburger SV +2.592.7%1.08
- Hamburger SV −1.517.2%5.82
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.582.8%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored180
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.564
Over 2.5 called right62.8%
BTTS called right57.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 56 | 45.2% | 41.1% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 160 of 180 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5559 | 0.5528 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.5% | 57.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 160 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Union Berlin 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt42·27·31
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 3–2 1. FC Heidenheim80·13·7
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 1–0 SC Freiburg57·22·21
- ✗Hamburger SV 2–2 Bayern München8·14·77
- ✗RB Leipzig 1–2 FSV Mainz 0553·23·24
- ✓FC Augsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli57·23·20
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen23·23·54
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 Union Berlin58·23·20
- ✗Werder Bremen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach50·24·26
- ✓1.FC Köln 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg49·24·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 180 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.