1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
12th · 23 pts · 22 played
WLWLL
2–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 45 pts · 22 played
WWWLW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 6.9 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 7 and had to travel 232 km.
Away travel232 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln29%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim47%
1.FC Köln27%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim47%
1.FC Köln29%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim48%
1.FC Köln22%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
1.FC Köln29%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 65
Team strength
1.FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
36
AttackIn forecast
46
36
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.18
ShotsContext
13.00
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.77
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
65%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.86
Shots allowedContext
12.77
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
4.33
BlocksContext
3.67
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
64%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
397
PassesContext
457
322
Accurate passesContext
368
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
7.95
FoulsContext
13.55
10.18
Fouls sufferedContext
9.23
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
40%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
65%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.10
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.00
BlocksContext
3.33
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
62%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
382
PassesContext
462
303
Accurate passesContext
375
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.93
6.40
FoulsContext
12.20
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km575 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel232 km467 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 232 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 575 km | 467 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
33R. van den Berg
2Joel Schmied
32K. Lund
5T. Krauß
6E. Martel
28S. Sebulonsen
13S. El Mala
16J. Kamiński
9R. Ache
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
34V. Coufal
27A. Kramarić
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.55
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 3–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 5–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 45 of 63 · 2.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins2 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.71
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 3 Oct 20251899 Hoffenheim0–11.FC Köln
- 11 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11.FC Köln
- 16 Sep 20231.FC Köln1–31899 Hoffenheim
- 22 Apr 20231899 Hoffenheim1–31.FC Köln
- 30 Oct 20221.FC Köln1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 6 Mar 20221.FC Köln0–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 3.41 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 68% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.30 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.24 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.76 | 5.55 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.37 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.54 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.80 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+45%league 38%
Fouls23.7league 20.7
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins48%league 46%
1.FC Köln8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D10 Jan 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–21
- W8 Apr 23A · FC Augsburg3–14
- W21 Jan 23H · Werder Bremen7–10
- W7 Aug 22H · FC Schalke 043–10
- L14 May 22A · VfB Stuttgart1–24
1899 Hoffenheim3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Dec 23A · RB Leipzig1–32
- D27 May 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–10
- D12 Mar 22H · Bayern München1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln22 games · scored 31 · conceded 37
4
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
7
3
46-60
8
61-75
13
9
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim22 games · scored 47 · conceded 28
4
4
0-15
7
5
16-30
13
4
31-45
11
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
7
5
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
