1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
12th · 31 pts · 30 played
DDDWD
1–2Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 52 pts · 30 played
DDWWL
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 7.8 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 11 km.
Away travel11 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln25%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen52%
1.FC Köln21%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
1.FC Köln25%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen53%
1.FC Köln19%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen61%
1.FC Köln26%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 65
Team strength
1.FC KölnBayer Leverkusen
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
36
AttackIn forecast
87
36
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnBayer Leverkusen
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
87%
Scored inContext
87%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.40
ShotsContext
14.10
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.76
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
68%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.48
13.17
Shots allowedContext
11.53
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.66
3.90
BlocksContext
2.89
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.39
65%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
394
PassesContext
600
319
Accurate passesContext
532
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.99
7.83
FoulsContext
8.67
10.23
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
15.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
81%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.30
BlocksContext
2.40
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
60%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
374
PassesContext
551
299
Accurate passesContext
484
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.99
7.30
FoulsContext
8.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km714 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel11 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 11 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 714 km | 127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
32K. Lund
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
37L. Maina
16J. Kamiński
13S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 1.67
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game | 49 of 87 · 1.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins1 draws4 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 13 Dec 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–01.FC Köln
- 3 Mar 20241.FC Köln0–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 8 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–01.FC Köln
- 5 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–21.FC Köln
- 9 Nov 20221.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 13 Mar 2022Bayer Leverkusen0–11.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.37 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| 1.FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.48 | 9.23 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 12/27 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.77 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 15/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 9.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.73
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 20.3
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins45%league 44%
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Feb 26A · VfB Stuttgart1–31
- D20 May 23A · Werder Bremen1–12
- W14 Dec 21A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- W15 Aug 21H · Hertha BSC3–14
Bayer Leverkusen5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Nov 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–11
- D9 Nov 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- D5 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–22
- W8 Apr 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–11
- D7 Nov 21A · Hertha BSC1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln30 games · scored 44 · conceded 51
8
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
12
61-75
18
10
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen30 games · scored 60 · conceded 41
10
5
0-15
10
6
16-30
16
13
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
9
7
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
