1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
12th · 17 pts · 16 played
DDLLD
1–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 44 pts · 16 played
WWDWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 37). Bayern München usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1.FC Köln had 4.2 days of rest, Bayern München 3.1 and had to travel 456 km.
Away travel456 kmRest days4.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln8%
Draw14%
Bayern München78%
1.FC Köln9%
Draw17%
Bayern München75%
1.FC Köln8%
Draw14%
Bayern München78%
1.FC Köln5%
Draw11%
Bayern München84%
1.FC Köln9%
Draw17%
Bayern München75%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
1.FC KölnBayern München
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
36
AttackIn forecast
96
36
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnBayern München
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.94
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.62
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+1.32
81%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.94
ShotsContext
18.75
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.13
38%
On target shareContext
43%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
13.06
61%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
21%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.75
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
4.25
BlocksContext
3.42
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.55
67%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
416
PassesContext
711
344
Accurate passesContext
642
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.22
8.56
FoulsContext
9.38
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.69
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
2.44
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+1.16
70%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
17.20
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
39%
On target shareContext
42%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
13.44
58%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
21%
2.22
OffsidesContext
3.11
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.60
BlocksContext
3.43
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
67%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
440
PassesContext
695
366
Accurate passesContext
626
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.08
8.00
FoulsContext
8.30
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km680 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel456 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 3.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 456 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 680 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
32K. Lund
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
29J. Thielmann
13S. El Mala
9R. Ache
37L. Maina
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
21H. Ito
4J. Tah
3M. Kim
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
45A. Pavlović
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bayern München+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.57
Bayern München · Away
2.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 3.43
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | W 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | W 5–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | W 6–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 3–3 A | W 8–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | W 6–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game | 44 of 48 · 2.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 1.FC Köln wins1 draws5 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2024Bayern München2–01.FC Köln
- 24 Nov 20231.FC Köln0–1Bayern München
- 27 May 20231.FC Köln1–2Bayern München
- 24 Jan 2023Bayern München1–11.FC Köln
- 15 Jan 20221.FC Köln0–4Bayern München
- 22 Aug 2021Bayern München3–21.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 4.69 | 3.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 0% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| 1.FC Köln | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 3.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.70 | 3.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 3.93 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.43 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 8.51 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.84
Red cards0.05league 0.20
Cards 5+36%league 40%
Fouls25.8league 21.1
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins49%league 46%
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Feb 24A · VfB Stuttgart1–10
- W1 Dec 23A · SV Darmstadt 981–03
- L10 Dec 21H · FC Augsburg0–22
Bayern München3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Mar 24H · FSV Mainz 058–11
- W30 Apr 23H · Hertha BSC2–02
- W9 Apr 22H · FC Augsburg1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln16 games · scored 24 · conceded 26
3
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
Bayern München16 games · scored 63 · conceded 12
6
3
0-15
11
2
16-30
11
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
9
1
61-75
20
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
14
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
