Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Wed, Jan 14 · 19:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln
1.FC Köln 12th · 17 pts · 16 played
1–3Full time
Bayern München 1st · 44 pts · 16 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1.FC Köln7.8%fair odds 12.87
Draw14.0%fair odds 7.15
Bayern München78.2%fair odds 1.28
Expected goals0.81 – 2.80total 3.61
Likeliest score0–210.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1.FC Köln

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1.FC Köln ↓ · Bayern München →0123456+
03.07.310.69.96.93.92.9
11.96.58.68.05.63.12.3
20.92.53.53.22.31.30.9
30.20.70.90.90.60.30.3
40.00.10.20.20.10.10.1
50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 0–210.6%9.42
  • 0–39.9%10.10
  • 1–28.6%11.64
  • 1–38.0%12.47
  • 0–17.3%13.78
  • 0–46.9%14.43
  • 1–16.5%15.47
  • 1–45.6%17.82
  • 0–53.9%25.78
  • 2–23.5%28.74

Winning margin

0.5% 1.FC Köln by 3+ fair 200.53
1.8% 1.FC Köln by 2 fair 56.16
5.5% 1.FC Köln by 1 fair 18.21
14.0% Draw fair 7.15
19.8% Bayern München by 1 fair 5.06
21.3% Bayern München by 2 fair 4.70
37.2% Bayern München by 3+ fair 2.69

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
30%5+

1.FC Köln goals

44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+

Bayern München goals

6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
31%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1.FC Köln win 7.8% 8.8% -1.0 pp
Draw 14.0% 16.5% -2.6 pp
Bayern München win 78.2% 74.6% +3.6 pp
Over 2.5 69.9% 61.5% +8.4 pp
Both teams score 52.5% 47.8% +4.6 pp
Expected goals 1.FC Köln 0.81 0.73 +0.08
Expected goals Bayern München 2.80 2.44 +0.36

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1.FC Köln win7.8%12.87
  • Draw14.0%7.15
  • Bayern München win78.2%1.28
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw21.8%4.60
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or Bayern München86.0%1.16
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw92.2%1.08
  • Draw no bet 1.FC Köln9.0%11.07
  • Draw no bet Bayern München91.0%1.10

Goals

  • Over 0.597.0%1.03
  • Over 1.587.8%1.14
  • Over 2.569.9%1.43
  • Over 3.548.7%2.05
  • Over 4.529.5%3.39
  • Under 1.512.2%8.23
  • Under 2.530.1%3.32
  • Under 3.551.3%1.95

Both teams to score

  • Yes52.5%1.91
  • No47.5%2.10
  • Yes and over 2.546.0%2.17
  • 1.FC Köln win and yes4.7%21.20
  • Draw and yes11.0%9.13
  • Bayern München win and yes36.8%2.72

Team goals

  • 1.FC Köln over 0.555.5%1.80
  • 1.FC Köln over 1.519.5%5.14
  • 1.FC Köln over 2.54.9%20.47
  • Bayern München over 0.593.9%1.06
  • Bayern München over 1.576.9%1.30
  • Bayern München over 2.553.0%1.89
  • 1.FC Köln clean sheet6.1%16.43
  • Bayern München clean sheet44.5%2.25
  • 1.FC Köln win to nil3.1%32.76
  • Bayern München win to nil41.5%2.41

Handicap

  • 1.FC Köln −1.52.3%43.87
  • 1.FC Köln −2.50.5%200.53
  • Bayern München +1.597.7%1.02
  • Bayern München +2.599.5%1.01
  • Bayern München −1.558.5%1.71
  • 1.FC Köln +1.541.5%2.41

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored146 Favourite won56.2% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right63.7% BTTS called right56.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2038.2%50.0%
40–50%4645.1%39.1%
50–60%3955.0%56.4%
60–70%2465.2%79.2%
70–80%1274.0%75.0%
80%+586.7%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 126 of 146 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54660.5445
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.3%
Favourite won57.9%56.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 126 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.