1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
13th · 24 pts · 24 played
WLLDL
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 52 pts · 24 played
WWWDL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 7.9 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7 and had to travel 74 km.
Away travel74 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
1.FC Köln22%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund55%
1.FC Köln18%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund58%
1.FC Köln22%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund54%
1.FC Köln16%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund63%
1.FC Köln22%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund53%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 119
Team strength
1.FC KölnBorussia Dortmund
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
36
AttackIn forecast
76
36
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnBorussia Dortmund
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
83%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
11.96
ShotsContext
12.71
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.08
67%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.39
OffsidesContext
1.94
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.42
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.48
4.26
BlocksContext
2.77
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.55
65%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
393
PassesContext
479
317
Accurate passesContext
403
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.98
7.71
FoulsContext
11.21
10.42
Fouls sufferedContext
10.42
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.70
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
30%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
75%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.33
BlocksContext
2.70
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
60%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
366
PassesContext
419
286
Accurate passesContext
338
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.93
6.20
FoulsContext
12.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km805 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel74 km681 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 74 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 805 km | 681 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
22J. Simpson-Pusey
33R. van den Berg
5T. Krauß
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
13S. El Mala
16J. Kamiński
38Y. Niang
9R. Ache
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.25points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.58
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-1
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | D 3–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game | 49 of 69 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 1.FC Köln wins1 draws5 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game0.71 – 2.43
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets0% · 57%
- 25 Oct 2025Borussia Dortmund1–01.FC Köln
- 20 Jan 20241.FC Köln0–4Borussia Dortmund
- 19 Aug 2023Borussia Dortmund1–01.FC Köln
- 18 Mar 2023Borussia Dortmund6–11.FC Köln
- 1 Oct 20221.FC Köln3–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Mar 20221.FC Köln1–1Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.17 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 54% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 4.00 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.35 | 5.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.96 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 9.48 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 14/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 9/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 3.71 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.30 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.70 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.73
Red cards0.22league 0.16
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 20.6
Penalties0.26league 0.37
Home wins43%league 46%
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Feb 24H · Werder Bremen0–14
- L16 Sep 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–34
- L18 Mar 23A · Borussia Dortmund1–60
- W12 Feb 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–03
- D20 Mar 22H · Borussia Dortmund1–12
Borussia Dortmund13 with this referee
Record7-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W13 Jan 26H · Werder Bremen3–02
- W21 Sep 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- W20 Apr 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21
- L8 Feb 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–25
- W18 May 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln24 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
5
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
9
31-45
7
5
46-60
1
8
61-75
13
10
76-90
Borussia Dortmund24 games · scored 51 · conceded 25
6
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
15
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
7
6
61-75
14
8
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
