Bundesliga Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 7 · 17:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln
1.FC Köln 13th · 24 pts · 24 played
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 52 pts · 24 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1.FC Köln21.9%fair odds 4.56
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.28
Borussia Dortmund54.7%fair odds 1.83
Expected goals1.14 – 1.91total 3.04
Likeliest score1–110.9%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1.FC Köln

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1.FC Köln ↓ · Borussia Dortmund →0123456+
05.38.58.75.52.61.00.4
14.910.99.86.33.01.10.5
23.15.95.63.61.70.60.3
31.22.22.11.30.60.20.1
40.30.60.60.40.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.9%9.19
  • 1–29.8%10.15
  • 0–28.7%11.55
  • 0–18.5%11.71
  • 1–36.3%15.98
  • 2–15.9%17.02
  • 2–25.6%17.85
  • 0–35.5%18.18
  • 0–05.3%18.82
  • 1–04.9%20.52

Winning margin

2.6% 1.FC Köln by 3+ fair 38.55
6.0% 1.FC Köln by 2 fair 16.64
13.3% 1.FC Köln by 1 fair 7.52
23.3% Draw fair 4.28
22.7% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 4.41
16.9% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 5.92
15.2% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 6.58

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+

1.FC Köln goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

Borussia Dortmund goals

15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1.FC Köln win 21.9% 22.2% -0.3 pp
Draw 23.3% 24.6% -1.2 pp
Borussia Dortmund win 54.7% 53.2% +1.5 pp
Over 2.5 58.7% 54.0% +4.7 pp
Both teams score 58.4% 55.1% +3.3 pp
Expected goals 1.FC Köln 1.14 1.07 +0.07
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 1.91 1.77 +0.14

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1.FC Köln win21.9%4.56
  • Draw23.3%4.28
  • Borussia Dortmund win54.7%1.83
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw45.3%2.21
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or Borussia Dortmund76.7%1.30
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw78.1%1.28
  • Draw no bet 1.FC Köln28.6%3.50
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund71.4%1.40

Goals

  • Over 0.594.7%1.06
  • Over 1.581.3%1.23
  • Over 2.558.7%1.70
  • Over 3.536.3%2.76
  • Over 4.519.2%5.20
  • Under 1.518.7%5.34
  • Under 2.541.3%2.42
  • Under 3.563.7%1.57

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.4%1.71
  • No41.6%2.40
  • Yes and over 2.547.5%2.10
  • 1.FC Köln win and yes12.4%8.09
  • Draw and yes18.0%5.55
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes28.0%3.57

Team goals

  • 1.FC Köln over 0.567.9%1.47
  • 1.FC Köln over 1.531.5%3.18
  • 1.FC Köln over 2.510.7%9.32
  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.585.1%1.17
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.556.8%1.76
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.529.8%3.36
  • 1.FC Köln clean sheet14.9%6.73
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet32.1%3.12
  • 1.FC Köln win to nil9.5%10.47
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil26.7%3.74

Handicap

  • 1.FC Köln −1.58.6%11.62
  • 1.FC Köln −2.52.6%38.55
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.591.4%1.09
  • Borussia Dortmund +2.597.4%1.03
  • Borussia Dortmund −1.532.1%3.12
  • 1.FC Köln +1.567.9%1.47

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored222 Favourite won57.2% Avg chance given to result43.5% 1X2 Brier0.555 Over 2.5 called right62.6% BTTS called right57.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3138.3%38.7%
40–50%6645.1%45.5%
50–60%6255.3%61.3%
60–70%3564.5%71.4%
70–80%1874.2%77.8%
80%+1085.9%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 222 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 222 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.