1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
14th · 25 pts · 26 played
LDLLD
3–3Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 28 pts · 26 played
LLWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Borussia Mönchengladbach. 1.FC Köln had 6.9 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7.8 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
1.FC Köln37%
Draw28%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
1.FC Köln39%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach34%
1.FC Köln38%
Draw28%
Borussia Mönchengladbach34%
1.FC Köln31%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach42%
1.FC Köln37%
Draw28%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
1.FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
36
AttackIn forecast
34
36
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
85%
Scored inContext
62%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.96
ShotsContext
11.27
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
68%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.24
13.54
Shots allowedContext
13.73
4.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.31
4.12
BlocksContext
3.19
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
64%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
394
PassesContext
427
318
Accurate passesContext
352
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
7.92
FoulsContext
10.27
10.46
Fouls sufferedContext
10.31
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.42
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.10
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
27%
On target shareContext
33%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
78%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.17
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.89
BlocksContext
2.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
60%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
359
PassesContext
411
278
Accurate passesContext
333
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.65
6.90
FoulsContext
9.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km714 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel45 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 714 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
33R. van den Berg
36Cenny Neumann
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
13S. El Mala
16J. Kamiński
37L. Maina
9R. Ache
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
7K. Stöger
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–5 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Points | 25 of 75 · 1.00 per game | 25 of 75 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 1.FC Köln wins2 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.29 – 2.00
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 8 Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach3–11.FC Köln
- 9 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–31.FC Köln
- 22 Oct 20231.FC Köln3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Apr 20231.FC Köln0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 9 Oct 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach5–21.FC Köln
- 16 Apr 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach1–31.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 2.81 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 54% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 4.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.42 | 8.64 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 24% 6/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.07 | 3.58 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 12/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 6.60 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.70
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+57%league 37%
Fouls21.4league 20.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins43%league 46%
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 May 24H · SC Freiburg0–01
- D31 Mar 24A · FC Augsburg1–13
- D27 Jan 24A · VfL Wolfsburg1–13
Borussia Mönchengladbach5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Jan 26H · VfB Stuttgart0–31
- W1 Mar 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–03
- W31 Aug 24A · VfL Bochum2–00
- L20 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–43
- L17 Feb 24A · RB Leipzig0–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln26 games · scored 35 · conceded 44
5
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
6
46-60
1
8
61-75
14
10
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach26 games · scored 30 · conceded 43
3
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
6
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
8
8
61-75
9
9
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
