1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 36). Absences weigh more on FSV Mainz 05. 1.FC Köln had 2.8 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 3.8 and had to travel 142 km.
Away travel142 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln38%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0535%
1.FC Köln37%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0536%
1.FC Köln37%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0536%
1.FC Köln31%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0543%
1.FC Köln38%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0535%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 116
Team strength
1.FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
36
AttackIn forecast
68
36
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnFSV Mainz 05
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
82%
Scored inContext
53%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
11.65
ShotsContext
10.59
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.06
38%
On target shareContext
27%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
60%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.06
Shots allowedContext
15.12
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.24
4.18
BlocksContext
4.31
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
67%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
405
PassesContext
373
333
Accurate passesContext
279
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.18
FoulsContext
11.18
10.12
Fouls sufferedContext
10.65
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.24
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
40%
On target shareContext
32%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
59%
Box shareContext
76%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.70
BlocksContext
4.80
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
67%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
416
PassesContext
356
346
Accurate passesContext
266
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.83
7.40
FoulsContext
10.60
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km680 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel142 km910 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 680 km | 910 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
18Í. Jóhannesson
6E. Martel
37L. Maina
13S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
16J. Kamiński
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
48K. Potulski
16S. Bell
31D. Kohr
6K. Sano
30S. Widmer
7J. Lee
8P. Nebel
21D. da Costa
20P. Tietz
26S. Katompa Mvumpa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FSV Mainz 05-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.75
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 3–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins4 draws1 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 24 Aug 2025FSV Mainz 050–11.FC Köln
- 28 Apr 2024FSV Mainz 051–11.FC Köln
- 10 Dec 20231.FC Köln0–0FSV Mainz 05
- 15 Apr 20231.FC Köln1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 21 Oct 2022FSV Mainz 055–01.FC Köln
- 9 Apr 20221.FC Köln3–2FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 2.71 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 53% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 47% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| 1.FC Köln | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.94 | 5.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.38 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.32 | 8.87 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.12 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| 1.FC Köln | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.55 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 3.78
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+54%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 21.1
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins45%league 46%
1.FC Köln8 with this referee
Record3-4-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Oct 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–01
- D9 Mar 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–34
- D13 Jan 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–13
- L8 Oct 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–30
- W5 May 23A · Bayer Leverkusen2–16
FSV Mainz 059 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 0
- L26 Oct 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–22
- D19 Apr 25H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W22 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
- L19 Oct 24H · RB Leipzig0–21
- W13 Apr 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln17 games · scored 25 · conceded 29
3
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
11
7
76-90
FSV Mainz 0517 games · scored 17 · conceded 29
1
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
10
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
7
61-75
6
4
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
