1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1.FC Köln38.3%fair odds 2.61
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
FSV Mainz 0535.4%fair odds 2.83
Expected goals1.45 – 1.39total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1.FC Köln ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.07
- 2–18.6%11.69
- 1–28.2%12.25
- 1–07.9%12.72
- 0–17.5%13.38
- 0–06.5%15.48
- 2–06.2%16.22
- 2–25.9%16.85
- 0–25.6%17.80
- 3–14.1%24.13
Winning margin
7.0%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 14.28
11.5%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 8.69
19.8%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 5.04
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
18.9%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 5.29
10.5%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 9.54
6.0%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 16.73
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
1.FC Köln goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln win | 38.3% | 37.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.0% | -0.7 pp |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 35.4% | 35.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 50.9% | +3.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 55.7% | +2.4 pp |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.45 | 1.39 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.39 | 1.33 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1.FC Köln win38.3%2.61
- Draw26.3%3.80
- FSV Mainz 05 win35.4%2.83
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw64.6%1.55
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or FSV Mainz 0573.7%1.36
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw61.7%1.62
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln52.0%1.92
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0548.0%2.08
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.30
- Under 1.521.8%4.59
- Under 2.546.0%2.18
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- 1.FC Köln win and yes19.8%5.04
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes18.4%5.42
Team goals
- 1.FC Köln over 0.576.6%1.31
- 1.FC Köln over 1.542.6%2.34
- 1.FC Köln over 2.518.0%5.57
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.575.0%1.33
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.540.4%2.48
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.516.3%6.12
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet25.0%4.00
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet23.4%4.28
- 1.FC Köln win to nil18.5%5.40
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil16.9%5.91
Handicap
- 1.FC Köln −1.518.5%5.40
- 1.FC Köln −2.57.0%14.28
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.581.5%1.23
- FSV Mainz 05 +2.593.0%1.08
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.516.5%6.07
- 1.FC Köln +1.583.5%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored151
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.2% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 54.8% | 57.5% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.2% | 79.2% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 86.7% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 131 of 151 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5446 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 58.0% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 131 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Werder Bremen 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt36·26·38
- ✗FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin40·27·34
- ✓1.FC Köln 1–3 Bayern München8·14·78
- ✓RB Leipzig 2–0 SC Freiburg48·25·27
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 5–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach50·25·25
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli56·24·20
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen69·18·12
- ✓FSV Mainz 05 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim57·23·20
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt51·24·25
- ✓Bayern München 8–1 VfL Wolfsburg86·10·4
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.