1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
15th · 27 pts · 28 played
LLDDD
3–1Full time
Werder Bremen
14th · 28 pts · 28 played
WWLWL
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Werder Bremen. 1.FC Köln had 6.9 days of rest, Werder Bremen 8 and had to travel 270 km.
Away travel270 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln41%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen33%
1.FC Köln39%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen34%
1.FC Köln40%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen34%
1.FC Köln34%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen40%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen32%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 56
Team strength
1.FC KölnWerder Bremen
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
36
AttackIn forecast
56
36
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnWerder Bremen
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
86%
Scored inContext
61%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.04
ShotsContext
13.11
4.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.59
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
69%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.46
Shots allowedContext
12.71
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.04
4.07
BlocksContext
3.50
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
65%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
389
PassesContext
480
314
Accurate passesContext
397
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
7.82
FoulsContext
9.93
10.54
Fouls sufferedContext
9.64
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
31%
On target shareContext
27%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
82%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
3.17
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.90
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.90
BlocksContext
2.75
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
60%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
355
PassesContext
521
277
Accurate passesContext
436
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
7.40
FoulsContext
9.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel270 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 305 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
29J. Thielmann
18Í. Jóhannesson
6E. Martel
16J. Kamiński
9R. Ache
13S. El Mala
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
10L. Bittencourt
14S. Lynen
27F. Agu
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Werder Bremen-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.71
Werder Bremen · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 81 · 0.96 per game | 27 of 81 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 1.FC Köln wins2 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 29 Nov 2025Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
- 16 Feb 20241.FC Köln0–1Werder Bremen
- 23 Sep 2023Werder Bremen2–11.FC Köln
- 20 May 2023Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
- 21 Jan 20231.FC Köln7–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 2.86 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 54% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 43% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 39% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.24 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.72 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 10.38 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 3.82 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 18/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.78 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 3.74
Red cards0.09league 0.17
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 20.4
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins45%league 44%
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Dec 25H · FC St. Pauli1–10
- W31 Aug 25H · SC Freiburg4–12
- L29 Apr 23H · SC Freiburg0–11
- L15 Oct 21A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–51
Werder Bremen8 with this referee
Record2-4-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 26A · Bayer Leverkusen0–13
- D27 Apr 25H · FC St. Pauli0–02
- L12 Jan 25A · RB Leipzig2–41
- W29 Sep 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim4–33
- D19 Dec 23H · RB Leipzig1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln28 games · scored 40 · conceded 49
7
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
2
10
61-75
16
10
76-90
Werder Bremen28 games · scored 31 · conceded 49
2
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
6
11
61-75
13
10
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
