1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1899 Hoffenheim
6th · 27 pts · 15 played
DWLWD
5–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
10th · 19 pts · 16 played
DWLLW
1899 Hoffenheim50.4%fair odds 1.98
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach25.0%fair odds 4.00
Expected goals1.76 – 1.18total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.65
- 2–19.7%10.35
- 1–08.7%11.48
- 2–08.2%12.22
- 1–26.5%15.43
- 0–05.9%17.06
- 2–25.7%17.53
- 3–15.7%17.64
- 0–15.7%17.69
- 3–04.8%20.83
Winning margin
12.5%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 8.02
15.5%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 6.43
22.4%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 4.47
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.06
14.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 6.75
7.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 14.30
3.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 31.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 50.4% | 48.8% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.0% | -1.3 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 25.0% | 25.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 51.2% | +5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 54.2% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.76 | 1.62 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.18 | 1.10 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1899 Hoffenheim win50.4%1.98
- Draw24.6%4.06
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win25.0%4.00
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw75.0%1.33
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Mönchengladbach75.4%1.33
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw49.6%2.02
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach33.2%3.02
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.2%4.94
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.73
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.4%2.16
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes25.5%3.92
- Draw and yes18.8%5.33
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes13.7%7.32
Team goals
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.582.8%1.21
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.552.5%1.90
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.525.9%3.86
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.569.3%1.44
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.533.0%3.03
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.511.6%8.59
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet30.7%3.26
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet17.2%5.82
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil24.8%4.03
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil11.3%8.82
Handicap
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.528.0%3.57
- 1899 Hoffenheim −2.512.5%8.02
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.572.0%1.39
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.587.5%1.14
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.510.2%9.82
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored146
Favourite won56.2%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right63.7%
BTTS called right56.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 55.0% | 56.4% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.2% | 79.2% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 86.7% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 126 of 146 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5466 | 0.5445 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 57.9% | 56.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 126 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓SC Freiburg 2–1 Hamburger SV62·21·17
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.