1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 46 pts · 23 played
WWLWD
0–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 20 pts · 23 played
DLWLW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were clear favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 5.9 and had to travel 484 km.
Away travel484 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim63%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli17%
1899 Hoffenheim67%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli13%
1899 Hoffenheim64%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli16%
1899 Hoffenheim55%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli22%
1899 Hoffenheim61%
Draw22%
FC St. Pauli17%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 70
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimFC St. Pauli
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
46
AttackIn forecast
20
43
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimFC St. Pauli
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
87%
Scored inContext
61%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.22
ShotsContext
9.96
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.36
Shots in the boxContext
5.86
69%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.61
Shots allowedContext
10.96
4.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.91
3.64
BlocksContext
3.39
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
73%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
457
PassesContext
429
369
Accurate passesContext
339
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.43
FoulsContext
9.78
9.09
Fouls sufferedContext
9.87
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.35
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.95
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
9.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
40%
On target shareContext
39%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
69%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.44
BlocksContext
3.44
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
460
PassesContext
390
372
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.40
FoulsContext
8.80
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km464 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel484 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 484 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 464 km | 694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
6G. Prömel
34V. Coufal
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
6J. Sands
7J. Irvine
2E. Saliakas
28M. Pereira Lage
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
2.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-3
- Scored
- 2.45
- Conceded
- 1.18
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-9
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 43 of 66 · 1.95 per game | 20 of 66 · 0.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 1899 Hoffenheim wins0 draws2 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 19 Oct 2025FC St. Pauli0–31899 Hoffenheim
- 14 Mar 2025FC St. Pauli1–01899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim0–2FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.70 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 61% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 57% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 39% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.04 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 10.47 | 9.41 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 18/23 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 16/23 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 3.39 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 5/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.80 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.20 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.79
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 20.6
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins37%league 46%
1899 Hoffenheim5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L30 Mar 24A · Bayer Leverkusen1–21
- D26 Nov 23H · FSV Mainz 051–14
- W23 Sep 23A · Union Berlin2–03
- D18 Sep 22H · SC Freiburg0–01
- L22 Jan 22H · Borussia Dortmund2–32
FC St. PauliNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim23 games · scored 49 · conceded 30
4
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
14
4
31-45
12
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
5
76-90
FC St. Pauli23 games · scored 22 · conceded 40
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
9
31-45
5
10
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
8
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
8
2
31-45
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
