Bundesliga Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 3rd · 46 pts · 23 played
0–1Full time
FC St. Pauli 16th · 20 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1899 Hoffenheim62.8%fair odds 1.59
Draw20.4%fair odds 4.90
FC St. Pauli16.8%fair odds 5.97
Expected goals2.22 – 1.07total 3.29
Likeliest score2–19.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1899 Hoffenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FC St. Pauli

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · FC St. Pauli →0123456+
04.23.52.10.80.20.00.0
17.89.34.81.70.50.10.0
29.29.85.31.90.50.10.0
36.87.33.91.40.40.10.0
43.84.02.20.80.20.00.0
51.71.81.00.30.10.00.0
6+0.90.90.50.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.8%10.18
  • 1–19.3%10.71
  • 2–09.2%10.91
  • 1–07.8%12.81
  • 3–17.3%13.78
  • 3–06.8%14.76
  • 2–25.3%19.00
  • 1–24.8%21.05
  • 0–04.2%23.79
  • 4–14.0%24.87

Winning margin

21.5% 1899 Hoffenheim by 3+ fair 4.66
19.0% 1899 Hoffenheim by 2 fair 5.27
22.4% 1899 Hoffenheim by 1 fair 4.47
20.4% Draw fair 4.90
10.6% FC St. Pauli by 1 fair 9.45
4.4% FC St. Pauli by 2 fair 22.56
1.7% FC St. Pauli by 3+ fair 57.29

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+

1899 Hoffenheim goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+

FC St. Pauli goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1899 Hoffenheim win 62.8% 60.8% +2.1 pp
Draw 20.4% 21.8% -1.3 pp
FC St. Pauli win 16.8% 17.5% -0.7 pp
Over 2.5 63.8% 59.3% +4.5 pp
Both teams score 59.1% 56.2% +2.9 pp
Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim 2.22 2.05 +0.16
Expected goals FC St. Pauli 1.07 1.02 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1899 Hoffenheim win62.8%1.59
  • Draw20.4%4.90
  • FC St. Pauli win16.8%5.97
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw83.2%1.20
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or FC St. Pauli79.6%1.26
  • Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw37.2%2.69
  • Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim78.9%1.27
  • Draw no bet FC St. Pauli21.1%4.75

Goals

  • Over 0.595.8%1.04
  • Over 1.584.5%1.18
  • Over 2.563.8%1.57
  • Over 3.541.7%2.40
  • Over 4.523.5%4.25
  • Under 1.515.5%6.44
  • Under 2.536.2%2.76
  • Under 3.558.3%1.72

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.1%1.69
  • No40.9%2.44
  • Yes and over 2.549.7%2.01
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes32.8%3.05
  • Draw and yes16.2%6.17
  • FC St. Pauli win and yes10.1%9.94

Team goals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.589.1%1.12
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.564.9%1.54
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.538.2%2.62
  • FC St. Pauli over 0.565.8%1.52
  • FC St. Pauli over 1.529.1%3.44
  • FC St. Pauli over 2.59.4%10.65
  • 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet34.2%2.92
  • FC St. Pauli clean sheet10.9%9.17
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil30.0%3.33
  • FC St. Pauli win to nil6.7%14.93

Handicap

  • 1899 Hoffenheim −1.540.4%2.47
  • 1899 Hoffenheim −2.521.5%4.66
  • FC St. Pauli +1.559.6%1.68
  • FC St. Pauli +2.578.5%1.27
  • FC St. Pauli −1.56.2%16.19
  • 1899 Hoffenheim +1.593.8%1.07

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored207 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.560 Over 2.5 called right63.3% BTTS called right57.5%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2838.2%39.3%
40–50%6345.1%44.4%
50–60%5855.3%60.3%
60–70%3264.7%71.9%
70–80%1774.3%76.5%
80%+985.8%77.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 207 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.