Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sat, Oct 10 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 3 pts · 4 played
2–3Full time
Hamburger SV 16th · 3 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1899 Hoffenheim56.7%fair odds 1.76
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.45
Hamburger SV20.9%fair odds 4.79
Expected goals2.01 – 1.15total 3.16
Likeliest score1–110.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1899 Hoffenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Hamburger SV →0123456+
04.84.42.81.10.30.10.0
18.010.35.72.20.60.10.0
28.69.95.72.20.60.10.0
35.76.63.81.50.40.10.0
42.93.31.90.70.20.00.0
51.21.30.80.30.10.00.0
6+0.50.60.40.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.3%9.67
  • 2–19.9%10.15
  • 2–08.6%11.69
  • 1–08.0%12.49
  • 3–16.6%15.16
  • 3–05.7%17.46
  • 2–25.7%17.63
  • 1–25.7%17.69
  • 0–04.8%20.98
  • 0–14.4%22.89

Winning margin

16.8% 1899 Hoffenheim by 3+ fair 5.95
17.4% 1899 Hoffenheim by 2 fair 5.75
22.5% 1899 Hoffenheim by 1 fair 4.45
22.5% Draw fair 4.45
12.7% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 7.89
5.7% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 17.49
2.5% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 40.29

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+

1899 Hoffenheim goals

13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+

Hamburger SV goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1899 Hoffenheim win 56.7% 55.5% +1.2 pp
Draw 22.5% 22.9% -0.4 pp
Hamburger SV win 20.9% 21.6% -0.8 pp
Over 2.5 61.2% 60.4% +0.8 pp
Both teams score 59.7% 59.5% +0.2 pp
Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim 2.01 1.96 +0.04
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.15 1.16 -0.01

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1899 Hoffenheim win56.7%1.76
  • Draw22.5%4.45
  • Hamburger SV win20.9%4.79
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw79.1%1.26
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV77.5%1.29
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw43.3%2.31
  • Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim73.1%1.37
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV26.9%3.72

Goals

  • Over 0.595.2%1.05
  • Over 1.582.9%1.21
  • Over 2.561.2%1.64
  • Over 3.538.8%2.57
  • Over 4.521.2%4.71
  • Under 1.517.1%5.83
  • Under 2.538.8%2.57
  • Under 3.561.2%1.64

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.7%1.67
  • No40.3%2.48
  • Yes and over 2.549.4%2.02
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes29.8%3.35
  • Draw and yes17.7%5.65
  • Hamburger SV win and yes12.2%8.19

Team goals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.586.6%1.16
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.559.6%1.68
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.532.5%3.07
  • Hamburger SV over 0.568.4%1.46
  • Hamburger SV over 1.532.0%3.13
  • Hamburger SV over 2.511.0%9.08
  • 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet31.6%3.16
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet13.4%7.45
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil26.9%3.72
  • Hamburger SV win to nil8.7%11.54

Handicap

  • 1899 Hoffenheim −1.534.2%2.92
  • 1899 Hoffenheim −2.516.8%5.95
  • Hamburger SV +1.565.8%1.52
  • Hamburger SV +2.583.2%1.20
  • Hamburger SV −1.58.2%12.20
  • 1899 Hoffenheim +1.591.8%1.09

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored37 Favourite won51.4% Avg chance given to result42.7% 1X2 Brier0.575 Over 2.5 called right78.4% BTTS called right62.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%238.2%50.0%
40–50%1743.3%35.3%
50–60%755.8%42.9%
60–70%465.1%100.0%
70–80%573.2%80.0%
80%+286.2%50.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 37 of 37 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.57500.5913
Avg chance given to result42.7%42.3%
Favourite won51.4%51.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 1 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.