1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 35). 1899 Hoffenheim usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1899 Hoffenheim were without A. Hajdari and Bernardo. Hamburger SV were without Z. El Ouahdi and A. Grønbæk. 1899 Hoffenheim had 19.8 days of rest, Hamburger SV 21 and had to travel 484 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel484 kmRest days19.8 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
1899 Hoffenheim57%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV21%
1899 Hoffenheim54%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV22%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV22%
1899 Hoffenheim49%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV28%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV22%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
16°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 54%
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 109
Team strength
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
46
AttackIn forecast
37
43
DefenceIn forecast
43
21
Form indexContext
34
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.25
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
100%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.00
ShotsContext
9.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
26%
On target shareContext
40%
11.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
61%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
18.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
4.75
BlocksContext
4.25
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
55%
Save rateContext
52%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
503
PassesContext
364
411
Accurate passesContext
292
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.49
14.00
FoulsContext
14.50
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.20
ShotsContext
10.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
29%
On target shareContext
38%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
61%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.50
Shots allowedContext
16.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.60
BlocksContext
3.89
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
55%
Save rateContext
62%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
484
PassesContext
349
402
Accurate passesContext
277
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.80
FoulsContext
12.50
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
LLWLL
Rest19.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Hamburger SV
LLLW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel484 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 34 · 3 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 484 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
28K. Machida
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
14A. Daghim
11F. Asllani
20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
33S. Bornauw
24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
3D. Møller Wolfe
5M. Adeline
20Fábio Vieira
15Y. Poulsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −19.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Hajdari Starter 6.87 Def −11.4%
- DEF Bernardo Starter 6.91 Def −8.3%
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −24.3% · Defence line −14.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF Z. El Ouahdi Starter 6.03 Def −10.6%
- MID A. Grønbæk Starter 7.01 Att −10.0% Def −4.3%
- ATT P. Daka Rotation 6.52 Att −7.6%
- ATT T. Moffi Rotation 6.46 Att −6.4%
- ATT Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Depth 6.58 Att −0.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Hamburger SV · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins0 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Apr 2026Hamburger SV1–21899 Hoffenheim
- 13 Dec 20251899 Hoffenheim4–1Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 3.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 8.75 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.75 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.60 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.54
Red cards0.17league 0.08
Cards 5+44%league 22%
Fouls22.1league 22.4
Penalties0.30league 0.16
Home wins55%league 51%
1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- L4 Apr 26H · FSV Mainz 051–24
- D15 Dec 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- D6 Oct 24A · VfB Stuttgart1–14
- D3 May 24H · RB Leipzig1–11
- W6 May 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–13
Hamburger SV2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Jan 26H · Bayern München2–26
- W19 May 22A · Hertha BSC1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim4 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
76-90
Hamburger SV4 games · scored 2 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
7
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 10 · conceded 26
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
