Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 16 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel340 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sinsheim)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
46 AttackIn forecast 76
43 DefenceIn forecast 53
15 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
100% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.83 ShotsContext 17.67
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
30% On target shareContext 37%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.67
61% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.20 OffsidesContext 1.25
13.50 Shots allowedContext 17.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
4.33 BlocksContext 4.00
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
52% Save rateContext 77%
57% PossessionIn forecast 53%
499 PassesContext 508
405 Accurate passesContext 441
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.11
13.33 FoulsContext 9.83
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.60 ShotsContext 16.40
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
28% On target shareContext 36%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
62% Box shareContext 69%
8% ConversionContext 13%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.29
12.90 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.10 BlocksContext 3.00
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
50% Save rateContext 69%
59% PossessionIn forecast 54%
515 PassesContext 508
426 Accurate passesContext 443
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.97
14.00 FoulsContext 9.30
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel340 km507 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km340 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways184 km507 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 32 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one5.14.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.33
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 2–1 A W 3–0 H
Hamburger SV L 2–3 H W 5–0 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws6 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.30 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 20 Mar 2026RB Leipzig5–01899 Hoffenheim
  • 8 Nov 20251899 Hoffenheim3–1RB Leipzig
  • 5 Apr 2025RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 23 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim4–3RB Leipzig
  • 3 May 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1RB Leipzig
  • 16 Dec 2023RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1899 HoffenheimRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.832.67
Conceded per game 2.331.83
Match goals 4.174.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%83%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 100%33%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
1899 HoffenheimRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.402.10
Conceded per game 2.302.00
Match goals 3.704.10
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 HoffenheimRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won6.675.50
Corners conceded4.676.83
Match total11.3412.3310.72
Over 8.5100% 6/6100% 6/6
Over 9.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 10.567% 4/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.171.00
Opponent cards0.671.50
Match total2.842.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/633% 2/6
Over 4.517% 1/617% 1/6
1899 HoffenheimRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won7.104.80
Corners conceded4.205.70
Match total11.3010.5010.72
Over 8.5100% 10/1070% 7/10
Over 9.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 10.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.701.30
Opponent cards1.401.30
Match total4.102.603.51
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SV Elversberg Jan 1614:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Union Berlin Jan 1614:30 Borussia Dortmund SC Freiburg Jan 1614:30 1899 Hoffenheim RB Leipzig Jan 1614:30 Bayer Leverkusen FC Schalke 04 Jan 1614:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Bayern München Jan 1614:30 VfB Stuttgart FSV Mainz 05 Jan 1614:30 Hamburger SV FC Augsburg Jan 1614:30 SC Paderborn 07 1.FC Köln Jan 1614:30