SC Paderborn 07 vs 1.FC Köln

Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 16 · 14:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played LLWLD

VS— Compare

1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel153 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

SC Paderborn 07—%

Draw—%

1.FC Köln—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Paderborn)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend 1.FC Köln 83% Both teams scored Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07

1.FC Köln

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

34 AttackIn forecast 36

33 DefenceIn forecast 36

33 Form indexContext 26

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—

Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07

1.FC Köln

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

33% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.50 ShotsContext 16.33

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

21% On target shareContext 33%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

58% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 8%

1.20 OffsidesContext 1.00

18.17 Shots allowedContext 15.67

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

6.33 BlocksContext 3.83

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

74% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

443 PassesContext 417

357 Accurate passesContext 344

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.50 FoulsContext 11.17

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.50 ShotsContext 15.30

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

26% On target shareContext 35%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

60% Box shareContext 73%

8% ConversionContext 9%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.17

16.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.11 BlocksContext 3.80

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

79% Save rateContext 60%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

451 PassesContext 414

366 Accurate passesContext 343

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.80 FoulsContext 9.80

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07 LLWLD

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km660 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

1.FC Köln LDLWL

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel153 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan	3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	660 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 3	2 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct

15N. Noll(G)

22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst

5S. Castañeda

23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda

27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen

37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Paderborn 07 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln
Werder Bremen	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–2 H	L 1–4 A
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–1 H	W 3–2 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	0.83	1.33
Conceded per game	1.50	1.83
Match goals	2.33	3.17
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	50%	67%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	83%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	67%	17%
Games	6	6

	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln
Scored per game	0.83	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	2.30
Match goals	2.33	3.60
Over 1.5	67%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%
Over 3.5	33%	50%
Both teams scored	33%	90%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	67%	10%
Games	6	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	6.00
Corners conceded	6.17	6.33
Match total	10.50	12.33	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.83
Opponent cards	1.17	1.67
Match total	2.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	17% 1/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	SC Paderborn 07	1.FC Köln	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.78
Corners conceded	4.70	5.44
Match total	9.80	11.22	10.72
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.70	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.