Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 16 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel501 kmRest days3.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Mönchengladbach—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia MönchengladbachUnion Berlin
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
34 AttackIn forecast 42
21 DefenceIn forecast 41
7 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia MönchengladbachUnion Berlin
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
3.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
2.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
67% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
15.17 ShotsContext 12.83
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75
30% On target shareContext 35%
9.83 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
64% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 7%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.60
18.17 Shots allowedContext 15.67
8.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.20 BlocksContext 4.20
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40
62% Save rateContext 56%
48% PossessionIn forecast 44%
404 PassesContext 359
328 Accurate passesContext 268
81% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.46 Team ratingContext 6.58
14.83 FoulsContext 11.67
10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
70% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.50 ShotsContext 12.30
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
30% On target shareContext 38%
8.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
65% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.43
15.10 Shots allowedContext 14.50
7.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
2.88 BlocksContext 4.13
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
68% Save rateContext 57%
50% PossessionIn forecast 45%
432 PassesContext 372
356 Accurate passesContext 285
82% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.63 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.60 FoulsContext 10.30
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
  • L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts
Union Berlin
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel501 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Mönchengladbach Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan3.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km501 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways895 km631 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 32 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander
36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin
Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
2.33
Conceded
3.33
Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia MönchengladbachUnion Berlin
SV Elversberg L 3–4 H W 1–0 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws6 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 28 Feb 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Union Berlin
  • 17 Oct 2025Union Berlin3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 15 Feb 2025Union Berlin1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 28 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Union Berlin
  • 28 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0Union Berlin
  • 9 Dec 2023Union Berlin3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia MönchengladbachUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 1.330.83
Conceded per game 3.332.83
Match goals 4.673.67
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 100%67%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 33%50%
Games66
Borussia MönchengladbachUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 1.401.50
Conceded per game 2.302.30
Match goals 3.703.80
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 50%80%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia MönchengladbachUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded5.505.83
Match total11.509.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards3.002.50
Opponent cards1.832.00
Match total4.834.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 4.533% 2/633% 2/6
Borussia MönchengladbachUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.10
Corners conceded5.306.50
Match total9.9010.6010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.101.90
Match total5.204.103.51
Over 3.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
6 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 7 76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3 1 0-15
1 7 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
5 7 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen SV Elversberg Jan 1614:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Union Berlin Jan 1614:30 Borussia Dortmund SC Freiburg Jan 1614:30 1899 Hoffenheim RB Leipzig Jan 1614:30 Bayer Leverkusen FC Schalke 04 Jan 1614:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Bayern München Jan 1614:30 VfB Stuttgart FSV Mainz 05 Jan 1614:30 Hamburger SV FC Augsburg Jan 1614:30 SC Paderborn 07 1.FC Köln Jan 1614:30