1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 42 pts · 21 played
WWWWL
3–0Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 30 pts · 21 played
LDWLW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SC Freiburg. 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.9 days of rest, SC Freiburg 7 and had to travel 159 km.
Away travel159 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg30%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg29%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg37%
1899 Hoffenheim44%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg30%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimSC Freiburg
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
46
AttackIn forecast
63
43
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimSC Freiburg
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
86%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.43
ShotsContext
12.33
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
38%
On target shareContext
33%
8.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.79
69%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.47
12.81
Shots allowedContext
12.81
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.70
BlocksContext
4.28
3.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
74%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
454
PassesContext
405
365
Accurate passesContext
331
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.95
FoulsContext
9.62
9.52
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
33%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
68%
Box shareContext
69%
19%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.44
BlocksContext
4.86
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
80%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
468
PassesContext
369
380
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.30
FoulsContext
10.80
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km467 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel159 km262 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 159 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 467 km | 262 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
22Cyriaque Irié
9L. Höler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-3
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.30
SC Freiburg · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 2–6 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| Points | 41 of 60 · 2.05 per game | 29 of 60 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 1899 Hoffenheim wins3 draws5 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.89
Over 2.567%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 28 Sep 2025SC Freiburg1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 19 Apr 2025SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
- 8 Dec 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1SC Freiburg
- 20 Jan 2024SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
- 19 Aug 20231899 Hoffenheim1–2SC Freiburg
- 12 Mar 2023SC Freiburg2–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.10 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 62% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.52 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 9.53 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 16/21 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 4.38 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 5/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.13 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.10 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 3.75
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls21.9league 20.9
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins36%league 45%
1899 Hoffenheim1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Apr 24H · FC Augsburg3–13
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim21 games · scored 44 · conceded 28
4
4
0-15
7
5
16-30
13
4
31-45
9
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
5
76-90
SC Freiburg21 games · scored 32 · conceded 33
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
12
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
