Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 26). FC Porto usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Alverca had 7.9 days of rest, FC Porto 6.9 and had to travel 253 km.
Away travel253 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alverca16%
Draw23%
FC Porto61%
Alverca17%
Draw23%
FC Porto61%
Alverca16%
Draw23%
FC Porto61%
Alverca12%
Draw20%
FC Porto68%
Alverca17%
Draw23%
FC Porto61%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 88
Team strength
Alverca
FC Porto
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
38
AttackIn forecast
74
42
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaFC Porto
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.29
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.48
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
71%
Scored inContext
93%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
8.71
ShotsContext
14.71
3.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.79
39%
On target shareContext
39%
5.69
Shots in the boxContext
10.36
63%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.29
Shots allowedContext
8.93
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
4.14
BlocksContext
3.43
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.70
69%
Save rateContext
90%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
358
PassesContext
454
287
Accurate passesContext
387
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.86
FoulsContext
13.21
14.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.10
ShotsContext
14.10
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
42%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
62%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.90
Shots allowedContext
8.60
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
4.30
BlocksContext
3.40
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.83
75%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
372
PassesContext
487
301
Accurate passesContext
415
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.60
FoulsContext
12.80
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km472 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel253 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 253 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 472 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
3Julián Jose Martinez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
21S. Abdulai
8Alexsandro Amorim
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
9M. Milovanović
18Lincoln
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
52Martim Fernandes
4J. Kiwior
13P. Rosario
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.43
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-0
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 14 of 36 · 1.17 per game | 34 of 36 · 2.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.43 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 7% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Alverca | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 2.92 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.30 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.79 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.36 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Alverca | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 7.63 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 5.16
Red cards0.19league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 62%
Fouls26.0league 27.4
Penalties0.26league 0.45
Home wins42%league 36%
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L24 Oct 25H · GIL Vicente0–43
FC Porto11 with this referee
Record6-2-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L6 Apr 25H · Benfica1–43
- D7 Feb 25H · Sporting CP1–13
- W6 Oct 24H · SC Braga2–12
- W3 Mar 24H · Benfica5–01
- W28 Jan 24A · Farense3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca14 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
FC Porto14 games · scored 30 · conceded 4
5
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
