Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel283 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Alverca—%
Draw—%
Moreirense—%
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Alverca and Moreirense. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Alverca
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Alverca
3
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Trend
Alverca
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Alverca
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Alverca
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Alverca
7
Scoring in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
-
Alert
Alverca
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
AlvercaMoreirense
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
38
AttackIn forecast
17
42
DefenceIn forecast
27
64
Form indexContext
23
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaMoreirense
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.51
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
88%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.00
ShotsContext
7.88
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
4.25
59%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
12.13
Shots allowedContext
15.13
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.29
BlocksContext
3.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
343
PassesContext
324
273
Accurate passesContext
244
80%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.48
14.63
FoulsContext
13.63
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.53
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
60%
Box shareContext
54%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
14.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
56%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
350
PassesContext
364
281
Accurate passesContext
286
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.54
14.40
FoulsContext
12.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
DLWWW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km437 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Moreirense
LLWDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel283 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 437 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Last XI · not confirmed
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
21Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
6D. Gui
35Rayan Lucas
20Diogo Spencer
22Figueiredo
19D. Camara
10Chiquinho
Moreirense
Last XI · not confirmed
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
65Guilherme Liberato
23N. John
19Tiago Andrade
7Manuel Mendonça
10Kiko Bondoso
79L. Vonić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Moreirense
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Alverca wins0 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2026Alverca2–1Moreirense
- 10 Aug 2025Moreirense2–1Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.88 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Alverca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.38 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Alverca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 7.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alverca8 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Moreirense8 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
