Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 13 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,510 kmRest days8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Santa Clara—%
Draw—%
FC Porto—%
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Santa Clara and FC Porto. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
FC Porto
+0.62
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.75xG against1.13
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
FC Porto
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Santa Clara
8
Unbeaten in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
FC Porto
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
FC Porto
+0.62
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.75xG against1.13
-
Trend
FC Porto
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
FC Porto
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
FC Porto
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Santa ClaraFC Porto
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
29
AttackIn forecast
74
53
DefenceIn forecast
79
73
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraFC Porto
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
88%
Scored inContext
100%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.13
ShotsContext
16.25
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
27%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
60%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.71
7.75
Shots allowedContext
10.25
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
1.63
BlocksContext
2.75
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
83%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
379
PassesContext
426
300
Accurate passesContext
363
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.25
FoulsContext
13.88
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
80%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
14.60
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
24%
On target shareContext
39%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
59%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.57
OffsidesContext
3.25
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.10
BlocksContext
2.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
88%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
367
PassesContext
416
289
Accurate passesContext
351
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.50
FoulsContext
13.60
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
FC Porto
WWWWL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,510 km3,113 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 30 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov | 6.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,510 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,074 km | 3,113 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
FC Porto
Last XI · not confirmed
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
13P. Rosario
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
19André Silva
17Borja Sainz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Porto
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Academico Viseu | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Santa Clara wins2 draws4 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.33
Over 2.517%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 16 May 2026FC Porto1–0Santa Clara
- 4 Jan 2026Santa Clara0–1FC Porto
- 26 Jan 2025FC Porto1–1Santa Clara
- 16 Aug 2024Santa Clara0–2FC Porto
- 15 Apr 2023FC Porto2–1Santa Clara
- 29 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–1FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Santa Clara | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 10.38 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 3.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Santa Clara | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
FC Porto8 games · scored 20 · conceded 4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
