Rio Ave vs Casa Pia – 6 Dec 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 13 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 14th · 7 pts · 8 played LLDLW

VS— Compare

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Rio Ave—%

Draw—%

Casa Pia—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Rio Ave

Casa Pia

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

18 AttackIn forecast 13

21 DefenceIn forecast 25

17 Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

Casa Pia

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.38

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

38% Scored inContext 25%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

7.63 ShotsContext 9.63

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

41% On target shareContext 27%

3.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.14

39% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 4%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.83

16.38 Shots allowedContext 15.25

5.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.75 BlocksContext 5.71

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

62% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

363 PassesContext 343

300 Accurate passesContext 268

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.44

8.88 FoulsContext 12.13

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

50% Scored inContext 30%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

7.90 ShotsContext 9.60

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

39% On target shareContext 32%

3.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

42% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 5%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.75

16.60 Shots allowedContext 15.50

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.30 BlocksContext 5.67

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

63% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

362 PassesContext 327

298 Accurate passesContext 251

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.56

9.40 FoulsContext 12.60

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave LLDLW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km126 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W11 OctH · Nacional3–21.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Alverca0–11.0 xPts
D14 SepH · Estrela3–31.4 xPts
L6 SepA · Santa Clara0–40.9 xPts
L28 AugH · Sporting CP0–40.6 xPts

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov	5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	126 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nacional (H) 3–2, 11 Oct

32Vitor Hugo

17M. Vrousai 39Gustavo Mancha 5A. Ntoi 20João Tomé

54G. Liavas 79M. Patricio

7Diogo Bezerra 19M. Sellouki 80S. Clemmensen

11Jalen Blesa

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Casa Pia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.75

Casa Pia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Rio Ave	Casa Pia
Santa Clara	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 H
Estoril	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
FC Porto	L 0–2 H	L 1–4 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Rio Ave wins4 draws2 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.13 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

16 May 2026Casa Pia1–1Rio Ave
4 Jan 2026Rio Ave3–1Casa Pia
29 Mar 2025Casa Pia2–1Rio Ave
2 Nov 2024Rio Ave2–2Casa Pia
11 Feb 2024Rio Ave1–0Casa Pia
2 Sep 2023Casa Pia1–1Rio Ave

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	Casa Pia
Scored per game	1.00	0.38
Conceded per game	2.13	2.13
Match goals	3.13	2.50
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	38%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	25%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	63%	75%
Games	8	8

	Rio Ave	Casa Pia
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.20	1.80
Match goals	3.20	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	50%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.00
Corners conceded	6.13	6.25
Match total	9.88	10.25	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.38
Opponent cards	1.25	2.13
Match total	3.00	4.51	4.55
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8

	Rio Ave	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.10
Corners conceded	6.11	6.40
Match total	10.00	10.50	8.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.80
Opponent cards	1.30	2.10
Match total	3.20	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.