Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel313 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Estrela—%
Draw—%
GIL Vicente—%
Weather (Amadora)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estrela and GIL Vicente. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
GIL Vicente
+0.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.15xG against0.89
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
GIL Vicente
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
-
Insight
GIL Vicente
0.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
GIL Vicente
+0.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.15xG against0.89
-
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
GIL Vicente
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
GIL Vicente
0.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Estrela
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EstrelaGIL Vicente
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
27
DefenceIn forecast
50
24
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaGIL Vicente
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.63
ShotsContext
13.50
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
28%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
68%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.88
Shots allowedContext
11.13
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
2.13
BlocksContext
2.71
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
61%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
412
PassesContext
472
345
Accurate passesContext
409
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.75
FoulsContext
13.13
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
69%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.56
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.40
BlocksContext
3.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
63%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
384
PassesContext
447
317
Accurate passesContext
386
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
DWDLL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km619 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
GIL Vicente
LLDWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel313 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 46 · 7 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 313 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 619 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Last XI · not confirmed
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
GIL Vicente
Last XI · not confirmed
30Lucão(G)
45David Moreira
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
86Diogo Prioste
12A. Lausen
20Gil Martins
10Santi García
77Murilo
99M. Kaba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
GIL Vicente
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
GIL Vicente · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Estrela wins3 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 8 Mar 2026Estrela2–2GIL Vicente
- 4 Oct 2025GIL Vicente2–0Estrela
- 7 Mar 2025Estrela1–1GIL Vicente
- 5 Oct 2024GIL Vicente3–0Estrela
- 18 May 2024Estrela1–0GIL Vicente
- 14 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 1.75 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 7.14 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 7.12 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estrela8 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
GIL Vicente8 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
