Estoril vs Guimaraes

Primeira Liga Gameweek 13 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

VS— Compare

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel319 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Estoril—%

Draw—%

Guimaraes—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Estoril)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight Guimaraes +0.32 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.39xG against1.07

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Estoril

Guimaraes

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

21 AttackIn forecast 28

29 DefenceIn forecast 39

10 Form indexContext 13

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Guimaraes

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

50% Scored inContext 50%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.88 ShotsContext 17.25

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

39% On target shareContext 23%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 10.63

60% Box shareContext 62%

4% ConversionContext 4%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.43

13.75 Shots allowedContext 9.13

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.86 BlocksContext 3.00

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

61% Save rateContext 62%

47% PossessionIn forecast 54%

402 PassesContext 449

322 Accurate passesContext 370

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.88 FoulsContext 15.63

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.89

60% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 16.60

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

38% On target shareContext 23%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

61% Box shareContext 62%

5% ConversionContext 3%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.50 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.78 BlocksContext 2.63

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

58% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

411 PassesContext 448

333 Accurate passesContext 370

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.00 FoulsContext 14.70

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril LDLLL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km642 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel319 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov	7.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	319 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	642 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Guimaraes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.25

Guimaraes · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Guimaraes
Academico Viseu	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Casa Pia	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Arouca	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Benfica	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Nacional	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	1 of 18 · 0.17 per game	4 of 18 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Estoril wins0 draws6 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

24 Jan 2026Estoril4–2Guimaraes
16 Aug 2025Guimaraes3–2Estoril
26 Jan 2025Estoril1–0Guimaraes
18 Aug 2024Guimaraes1–0Estoril
2 Mar 2024Estoril1–3Guimaraes
1 Oct 2023Guimaraes3–2Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Guimaraes
Scored per game	0.50	0.63
Conceded per game	1.50	1.25
Match goals	2.00	1.88
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	38%	25%
Over 3.5	0%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	38%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	8	8

	Estoril	Guimaraes
Scored per game	0.60	0.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	2.20	1.80
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	20%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	5.75
Corners conceded	4.14	4.00
Match total	9.71	9.75	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	1.38	2.50
Match total	3.76	5.25	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Estoril	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.80
Corners conceded	4.67	3.80
Match total	9.67	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	4.00	5.20	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.