Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel972 kmRest days8.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Nacional—%
Draw—%
Benfica—%
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Nacional and Benfica. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Benfica
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nacional
6
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
-
Insight
Benfica
+1.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.77
-
Trend
Benfica
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Benfica
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Benfica
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Benfica
0.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
Team strength
NacionalBenfica
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
15
AttackIn forecast
81
13
DefenceIn forecast
81
5
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalBenfica
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
2.79
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
63%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
19.50
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.88
28%
On target shareContext
35%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
14.63
60%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.63
Shots allowedContext
7.63
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
3.14
BlocksContext
2.80
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
58%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
406
PassesContext
561
334
Accurate passesContext
492
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.61
Team ratingContext
7.15
11.13
FoulsContext
12.13
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
18.13
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
28%
On target shareContext
32%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
60%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.20
Shots allowedContext
9.88
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.22
BlocksContext
2.56
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
63%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
390
PassesContext
538
317
Accurate passesContext
472
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.61
Team ratingContext
7.16
12.20
FoulsContext
11.00
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
LLLLL
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
Benfica
WWLWW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel972 km4,299 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 27 Nov | 5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 4,299 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
88Deivison
31D. Dongmo
15C. Labidi
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
10Daniel Júnior
29N. Kader
Benfica
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
11D. Lukébakio
22J. Durán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Benfica
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Benfica · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 3.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Nacional wins0 draws4 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 12 Apr 2026Benfica2–0Nacional
- 29 Nov 2025Nacional1–2Benfica
- 8 Mar 2025Benfica3–0Nacional
- 19 Dec 2024Nacional0–2Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.88 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Nacional | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 9.50 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 4.01 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Nacional | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.63 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nacional8 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Benfica8 games · scored 24 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
