Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 87). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Arsenal had 3.2 days of rest, Aston Villa 3.1 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Arsenal60%
Draw22%
Aston Villa19%
Arsenal56%
Draw24%
Aston Villa20%
Arsenal58%
Draw22%
Aston Villa19%
Arsenal52%
Draw24%
Aston Villa24%
Arsenal58%
Draw23%
Aston Villa19%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 110
Team strength
Arsenal
Aston Villa
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
86
AttackIn forecast
83
95
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalAston Villa
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
0.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
94%
Scored inContext
72%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
15.00
ShotsContext
11.56
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
33%
On target shareContext
39%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.76
76%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.91
7.33
Shots allowedContext
12.78
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.13
BlocksContext
4.06
2.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
76%
Save rateContext
69%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
504
PassesContext
428
431
Accurate passesContext
361
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.61
FoulsContext
9.89
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
13.78
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
100%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.40
ShotsContext
13.10
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
40%
On target shareContext
47%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
75%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
7.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.78
BlocksContext
3.40
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
75%
Save rateContext
72%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
490
PassesContext
436
417
Accurate passesContext
368
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.50
FoulsContext
10.50
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Aston Villa
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel163 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 325 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 3.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
5P. Hincapié
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
23Mikel Merino
36Martín Zubimendi
8M. Ødegaard
19L. Trossard
14V. Gyökeres
7B. Saka
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
3V. Lindelöf
4E. Konsa
26L. Bogarde
8Y. Tielemans
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Aston Villa-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.44
Aston Villa · Away
1.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | W 2–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| Everton | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Fulham | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Leeds | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 39 of 48 · 2.44 per game | 33 of 48 · 2.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Arsenal wins1 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 6 Dec 2025Aston Villa2–1Arsenal
- 18 Jan 2025Arsenal2–2Aston Villa
- 24 Aug 2024Aston Villa0–2Arsenal
- 14 Apr 2024Arsenal0–2Aston Villa
- 9 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Arsenal
- 18 Feb 2023Aston Villa2–4Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.61 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.67 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 61% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.82 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.12 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 10.11 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.61 | |
| Match total | 3.05 | 4.22 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 7/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 3/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 6.56 | 9.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.30 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.71
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 21.5
Penalties0.28league 0.21
Home wins44%league 47%
Arsenal6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W13 Sep 25H · Nottingham Forest3–01
- D5 Apr 25A · Everton1–11
- W27 Dec 24H · Ipswich1–01
- W1 Apr 23H · Leeds4–10
- W13 Aug 22H · Leicester4–21
Aston Villa8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against4 · 1
Reds1
- W19 Oct 24A · Fulham3–15
- L3 Apr 24A · Manchester City1–42
- W16 Sep 23H · Crystal Palace3–15
- L4 Feb 23H · Leicester2–40
- W23 Oct 22H · Brentford4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal18 games · scored 33 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
9
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Aston Villa18 games · scored 29 · conceded 19
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
