Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Burnley. Arsenal had 8.1 days of rest, Burnley 8.3 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days8.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Arsenal82%
Draw13%
Burnley6%
Arsenal84%
Draw12%
Burnley5%
Arsenal82%
Draw13%
Burnley6%
Arsenal76%
Draw16%
Burnley9%
Arsenal80%
Draw14%
Burnley6%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 124
Team strength
Arsenal
Burnley
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
86
AttackIn forecast
27
95
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalBurnley
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
0.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.03
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
92%
Scored inContext
64%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.28
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
33%
10.61
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
74%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.97
8.25
Shots allowedContext
16.86
2.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.81
3.25
BlocksContext
5.25
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
468
PassesContext
381
394
Accurate passesContext
300
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.33
FoulsContext
10.25
10.94
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
90%
Scored inContext
60%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
10.00
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
62%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.80
Shots allowedContext
17.30
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.50
BlocksContext
5.50
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
79%
Save rateContext
58%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
438
PassesContext
385
372
Accurate passesContext
310
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.60
FoulsContext
11.10
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May | 8.3Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
3Cristhian Mosquera
10E. Eze
41D. Rice
8M. Ødegaard
19L. Trossard
29K. Havertz
7B. Saka
Burnley
Confirmed XI
13Max Weiss(G)
23Lucas Pires
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
8L. Ugochukwu
16Florentino
11J. Anthony
28H. Mejbri
17L. Tchaouna
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Burnley+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.44points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-2-2
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 0.61
Burnley · Away
0.50points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-13
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Fulham | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–5 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Brighton | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Tottenham | W 4–1 AW 4–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Wolves | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Brentford | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Sunderland | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Leeds | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Aston Villa | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 76 of 105 · 2.17 per game | 21 of 105 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Arsenal wins2 draws1 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 29%
- 1 Nov 2025Burnley0–2Arsenal
- 17 Feb 2024Burnley0–5Arsenal
- 11 Nov 2023Arsenal3–1Burnley
- 23 Jan 2022Arsenal0–0Burnley
- 18 Sep 2021Burnley0–1Arsenal
- 6 Mar 2021Burnley1–1Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.72 | 2.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 3.06 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 58% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 36% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Arsenal | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.82 | 3.66 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 6.03 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 9.69 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 18/34 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 16/34 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 15/34 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.97 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 17/36 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 8/36 | 19% 7/36 | |
| Arsenal | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.89 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.33 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.78
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 21.6
Penalties0.17league 0.21
Home wins37%league 43%
Arsenal13 with this referee
Record5-4-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D18 Feb 26A · Wolves2–21
- W12 May 24A · Manchester United1–02
- W20 Apr 24A · Wolves2–02
- W24 Feb 24H · Newcastle4–11
- W20 Jan 24H · Crystal Palace5–00
Burnley8 with this referee
Record1-2-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L2 Feb 26A · Sunderland0–34
- L26 Dec 23H · Liverpool0–22
- D19 May 22A · Aston Villa1–12
- D17 Apr 22A · West Ham1–12
- L12 Mar 22A · Brentford0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal36 games · scored 68 · conceded 26
8
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
14
6
31-45
14
3
46-60
10
5
61-75
16
8
76-90
Burnley36 games · scored 37 · conceded 73
3
13
0-15
5
6
16-30
8
17
31-45
6
10
46-60
5
10
61-75
10
17
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
