Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Leeds. Arsenal were without E. Konsa and C. Tzolis. Leeds were without J. Rodon. Arsenal had 20.9 days of rest, Leeds 19.9 and had to travel 272 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel272 kmRest days20.9 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Arsenal67%
Draw19%
Leeds14%
Arsenal70%
Draw18%
Leeds12%
Arsenal68%
Draw19%
Leeds13%
Arsenal60%
Draw22%
Leeds18%
Arsenal66%
Draw19%
Leeds14%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 19 km/h
- Humidity 53%
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 129
Team strength
Arsenal
Leeds
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
86
AttackIn forecast
69
95
DefenceIn forecast
77
94
Form indexContext
81
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalLeeds
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.00
ShotsContext
12.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
73%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.60
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.40
BlocksContext
5.75
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
64%
Save rateContext
95%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
501
PassesContext
362
435
Accurate passesContext
279
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.10
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.20
FoulsContext
10.60
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
12.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
33%
On target shareContext
31%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
71%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.10
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.60
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
78%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
493
PassesContext
365
425
Accurate passesContext
279
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.00
FoulsContext
10.50
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
WWWWL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 12 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
Leeds
WDDWD
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 9 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 19.9Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
15E. Konsa
4B. White
49M. Lewis-Skelly
41D. Rice
20C. Madueke
8M. Ødegaard
7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −22.7% · Defence line −29.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF E. Konsa Starter 6.96 Def −13.5%
- ATT C. Tzolis Starter 6.86 Att −20.0%
- DEF W. Saliba Starter 6.92 Def −11.5%
- MID K. Havertz Rotation 6.86 Att −2.6% Def −1.6%
- DEF Cristhian Mosquera Rotation 6.84 Def −2.4%
- MID M. Dowman Depth 6.56 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Leeds
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −3.2% · Defence line −7.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Rodon Starter 6.64 Def −6.7%
- MID H. Wilson Rotation 6.75 Att −3.2% Def −0.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Leeds+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Leeds · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 Arsenal wins1 draws0 Leeds wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 31 Jan 2026Leeds0–4Arsenal
- 23 Aug 2025Arsenal5–0Leeds
- 1 Apr 2023Arsenal4–1Leeds
- 16 Oct 2022Leeds0–1Arsenal
- 8 May 2022Arsenal2–1Leeds
- 18 Dec 2021Leeds1–4Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Arsenal | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.20 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Arsenal | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 7.11 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 11.11 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.90 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.76
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 40%
Fouls22.1league 22.8
Penalties0.16league 0.18
Home wins39%league 36%
Arsenal14 with this referee
Record6-4-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- W18 May 26H · Burnley1–01
- D18 Feb 26A · Wolves2–21
- W12 May 24A · Manchester United1–02
- W20 Apr 24A · Wolves2–02
- W24 Feb 24H · Newcastle4–11
Leeds14 with this referee
Record5-2-7
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Apr 26A · Manchester United2–12
- L25 Oct 23A · Stoke City0–13
- D25 Apr 23H · Leicester1–14
- D11 Mar 23H · Brighton2–21
- L12 Feb 23H · Manchester United0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal4 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Leeds5 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
