Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 87). Arsenal had 5.1 days of rest, Liverpool 4.2 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days5.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Arsenal60%
Draw22%
Liverpool19%
Arsenal58%
Draw24%
Liverpool19%
Arsenal60%
Draw22%
Liverpool19%
Arsenal52%
Draw24%
Liverpool24%
Arsenal58%
Draw24%
Liverpool19%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 200
Team strength
Arsenal
Liverpool
95
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
86
AttackIn forecast
85
95
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalLiverpool
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
95%
Scored inContext
85%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.05
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
28%
11.55
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
75%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.82
7.90
Shots allowedContext
10.85
2.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.29
BlocksContext
3.26
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
73%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
494
PassesContext
552
421
Accurate passesContext
475
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.95
FoulsContext
9.45
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.40
ShotsContext
15.50
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
38%
On target shareContext
31%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
74%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.78
9.60
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.20
BlocksContext
3.10
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
473
PassesContext
577
402
Accurate passesContext
503
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.70
FoulsContext
8.50
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Liverpool
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel286 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 573 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
5P. Hincapié
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
8M. Ødegaard
19L. Trossard
14V. Gyökeres
7B. Saka
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
12C. Bradley
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
8D. Szoboszlai
30J. Frimpong
7F. Wirtz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Liverpool+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-0
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.50
Liverpool · Away
1.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 A | W 4–2 H |
| Aston Villa | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Brighton | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Everton | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Leeds | W 5–0 H | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 48 of 57 · 2.53 per game | 31 of 57 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Arsenal wins4 draws4 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 31 Aug 2025Liverpool1–0Arsenal
- 11 May 2025Liverpool2–2Arsenal
- 27 Oct 2024Arsenal2–2Liverpool
- 4 Feb 2024Arsenal3–1Liverpool
- 23 Dec 2023Liverpool1–1Arsenal
- 9 Apr 2023Liverpool2–2Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 65% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Arsenal | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.80 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.32 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 9.95 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 8/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.35 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.80 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 4/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Arsenal | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 7.55 | 9.60 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.70
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls21.0league 21.4
Penalties0.26league 0.21
Home wins35%league 45%
Arsenal21 with this referee
Record12-7-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds2
- D30 Nov 25A · Chelsea1–16
- W18 Oct 25A · Fulham1–00
- D11 May 25A · Liverpool2–23
- D9 Mar 25A · Manchester United1–11
- D4 Jan 25A · Brighton1–13
Liverpool29 with this referee
Record13-13-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds1
- D6 Dec 25A · Leeds3–33
- L4 Oct 25A · Chelsea1–22
- W15 Aug 25H · Bournemouth4–21
- D11 May 25H · Arsenal2–21
- W23 Feb 25A · Manchester City2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal20 games · scored 40 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
12
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
9
6
76-90
Liverpool20 games · scored 32 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
9
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
12
9
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
8
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
