Premier League Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 20 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Sunderland 20th · 4 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel387 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Arsenal—%
Draw—%
Sunderland—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 5 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Arsenal and Sunderland. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ArsenalSunderland
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
94 Current StrengthIn forecast 57
86 AttackIn forecast 62
95 DefenceIn forecast 59
92 Form indexContext 56
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ArsenalSunderland
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.51
0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
86% Scored inContext 57%
57% Clean sheetsContext 14%
12.29 ShotsContext 11.57
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
34% On target shareContext 35%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 7.29
73% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 7%
4.00 OffsidesContext 2.83
11.14 Shots allowedContext 14.57
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.00 BlocksContext 4.29
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
71% Save rateContext 46%
61% PossessionIn forecast 48%
520 PassesContext 400
453 Accurate passesContext 316
87% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.62
10.14 FoulsContext 11.43
15.86 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.66
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.56
90% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.50 ShotsContext 14.40
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78
34% On target shareContext 30%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
71% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 8%
3.60 OffsidesContext 2.33
10.80 Shots allowedContext 12.40
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
3.10 BlocksContext 3.90
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
75% Save rateContext 52%
57% PossessionIn forecast 49%
508 PassesContext 395
441 Accurate passesContext 316
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.71
11.20 FoulsContext 12.70
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
  • W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Arsenal Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Mar7Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sunderland Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Sunderland · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentArsenalSunderland
Brighton L 0–3 A L 0–2 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Arsenal wins1 draws0 Sunderland wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.67 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%
  • 12 Sep 2026Sunderland0–2Arsenal
  • 7 Feb 2026Arsenal3–0Sunderland
  • 8 Nov 2025Sunderland2–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ArsenalSunderlandForecast
Scored per game 1.570.86
Conceded per game 0.712.00
Match goals 2.292.86
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 57%29%
Over 3.5 0%14%
Both teams scored 29%43%
Clean sheets 57%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
ArsenalSunderlandForecast
Scored per game 1.701.10
Conceded per game 0.601.60
Match goals 2.302.70
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 0%10%
Both teams scored 30%50%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ArsenalSunderlandLeague
Corners
Corners won4.714.29
Corners conceded4.004.14
Match total8.718.439.49
Over 8.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 9.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 10.529% 2/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.292.14
Opponent cards3.291.71
Match total4.583.854.17
Over 3.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
ArsenalSunderlandLeague
Corners
Corners won4.675.40
Corners conceded4.443.80
Match total9.119.209.49
Over 8.544% 4/940% 4/10
Over 9.544% 4/940% 4/10
Over 10.533% 3/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.602.60
Opponent cards2.802.00
Match total4.404.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

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Newcastle Leeds Mar 2015:00 Fulham Liverpool Mar 2015:00 Arsenal Sunderland Mar 2015:00 Everton Tottenham Mar 2015:00 Manchester City Manchester United Mar 2015:00 Brighton Coventry Mar 2015:00 Brentford Bournemouth Mar 2015:00 Ipswich Crystal Palace Mar 2015:00 Hull City Chelsea Mar 2015:00 Nottingham Forest Aston Villa Mar 2015:00