Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 72). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Arsenal had 15 days of rest, Tottenham 15.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days15 · 15.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Arsenal70%
Draw18%
Tottenham12%
Arsenal69%
Draw19%
Tottenham12%
Arsenal71%
Draw18%
Tottenham11%
Arsenal63%
Draw21%
Tottenham16%
Arsenal68%
Draw20%
Tottenham13%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 191
Team strength
Arsenal
Tottenham
93
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
86
AttackIn forecast
56
95
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalTottenham
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
0.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
91%
Scored inContext
82%
64%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
14.73
ShotsContext
9.73
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
32%
On target shareContext
36%
11.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.82
76%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.30
7.36
Shots allowedContext
11.64
2.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.33
BlocksContext
2.40
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
84%
Save rateContext
85%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
499
PassesContext
434
429
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.45
FoulsContext
11.55
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
9.36
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
100%
Scored inContext
80%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
37%
On target shareContext
34%
12.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
82%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.10
Shots allowedContext
12.90
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.13
BlocksContext
2.80
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
83%
Save rateContext
82%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
497
PassesContext
423
426
Accurate passesContext
355
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.67
FoulsContext
10.22
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 15.2Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
5P. Hincapié
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
19L. Trossard
10E. Eze
7B. Saka
23Mikel Merino
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
4K. Danso
13I. Udogie
30R. Bentancur
6João Palhinha
24D. Spence
28W. Odobert
20M. Kudus
9Richarlison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Tottenham+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.20
Tottenham · Away
2.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Leeds | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
7 Arsenal wins1 draws2 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.30
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 15 Jan 2025Arsenal2–1Tottenham
- 15 Sep 2024Tottenham0–1Arsenal
- 28 Apr 2024Tottenham2–3Arsenal
- 24 Sep 2023Arsenal2–2Tottenham
- 15 Jan 2023Tottenham0–2Arsenal
- 1 Oct 2022Arsenal3–1Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.45 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.64 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 64% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Arsenal | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.82 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.09 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.91 | 11.90 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 2.45 | 3.81 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 18% 2/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 9% 1/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Arsenal | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 11.10 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 191 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.70
Red cards0.14league 0.10
Cards 5+34%league 42%
Fouls22.5league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.19
Home wins43%league 52%
Arsenal25 with this referee
Record17-3-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds4
- W25 Jan 25A · Wolves1–02
- D10 Nov 24A · Chelsea1–12
- D22 Sep 24A · Manchester City2–26
- W24 Aug 24A · Aston Villa2–03
- W19 May 24H · Everton2–14
Tottenham13 with this referee
Record5-4-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds3
- W16 Aug 25H · Burnley3–00
- D4 May 25A · West Ham1–12
- L28 Apr 24H · Arsenal2–32
- D3 Feb 24A · Everton2–20
- L6 Nov 23H · Chelsea1–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal11 games · scored 20 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Tottenham11 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
46-60
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
