AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. AS Roma had 2.9 days of rest, Lecce 8 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d4 · 1
AS Roma56%
Draw26%
Lecce18%
AS Roma70%
Draw19%
Lecce11%
AS Roma57%
Draw25%
Lecce18%
AS Roma49%
Draw28%
Lecce23%
AS Roma61%
Draw23%
Lecce16%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
AS Roma
Lecce
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
72
AttackIn forecast
36
75
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaLecce
1.34
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.72
0.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
76%
Scored inContext
52%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
12.97
ShotsContext
9.66
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.58
34%
On target shareContext
24%
9.27
Shots in the boxContext
5.54
70%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.04
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.86
Shots allowedContext
12.66
3.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
2.83
BlocksContext
3.45
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
80%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
474
PassesContext
324
396
Accurate passesContext
245
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.28
FoulsContext
12.24
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.97
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
9.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
29%
On target shareContext
22%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
75%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.88
BlocksContext
3.30
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
64%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
434
PassesContext
303
355
Accurate passesContext
223
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.70
FoulsContext
12.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km2,443 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Lecce
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel504 km668 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 48 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,443 km | 668 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
12K. Tsimikas
8N. El Aynaoui
4B. Cristante
2D. Rensch
7L. Pellegrini
61N. Pisilli
14D. Malen
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
79Oumar Ngom
20Y. Ramadani
19L. Banda
16O. Gandelman
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Lecce+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-3
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.64
Lecce · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-9
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Como | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Napoli | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 48 of 84 · 1.71 per game | 27 of 84 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 AS Roma wins2 draws0 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 6 Jan 2026Lecce0–2AS Roma
- 29 Mar 2025Lecce0–1AS Roma
- 7 Dec 2024AS Roma4–1Lecce
- 1 Apr 2024Lecce0–0AS Roma
- 5 Nov 2023AS Roma2–1Lecce
- 11 Feb 2023Lecce1–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.34 | 0.72 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.79 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.07 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 38% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 38% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 48% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| AS Roma | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.00 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.39 | |
| Match total | 7.93 | 9.75 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 11/29 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 7/29 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 5/29 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 3.17 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 19/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 24% 7/29 | |
| AS Roma | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.66 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 3.75
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+30%league 35%
Fouls25.6league 25.1
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins50%league 40%
AS Roma2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Feb 26A · Udinese0–14
- W6 Jan 26A · Lecce2–01
Lecce2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Jan 26H · AS Roma0–23
- W12 Dec 25H · Pisa1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma29 games · scored 39 · conceded 23
5
3
0-15
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
11
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Lecce29 games · scored 21 · conceded 39
6
1
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
13
61-75
5
7
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
