AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AS Roma55.9%fair odds 1.79
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.87
Lecce18.3%fair odds 5.48
Expected goals1.63 – 0.82total 2.46
Likeliest score1–013.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AS Roma ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AS Roma goals, columns Lecce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%7.47
- 1–112.2%8.23
- 2–011.4%8.76
- 2–19.4%10.62
- 0–09.2%10.88
- 0–16.5%15.47
- 3–06.2%16.12
- 3–15.1%19.55
- 1–24.8%21.01
- 2–23.9%25.76
Winning margin
13.3%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 7.54
17.5%
AS Roma by 2
fair 5.72
25.2%
AS Roma by 1
fair 3.98
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.87
12.4%
Lecce by 1
fair 8.05
4.5%
Lecce by 2
fair 22.37
1.4%
Lecce by 3+
fair 73.18
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
AS Roma goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Lecce goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 55.9% | 60.6% | -4.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 23.1% | +2.8 pp |
| Lecce win | 18.3% | 16.3% | +1.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 52.0% | -7.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.8% | 49.9% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.63 | 1.88 | -0.25 |
| Expected goals Lecce | 0.82 | 0.87 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AS Roma win55.9%1.79
- Draw25.9%3.87
- Lecce win18.3%5.48
- Double chance AS Roma or draw81.7%1.22
- Double chance AS Roma or Lecce74.1%1.35
- Double chance Lecce or draw44.1%2.27
- Draw no bet AS Roma75.4%1.33
- Draw no bet Lecce24.6%4.06
Goals
- Over 0.590.8%1.10
- Over 1.571.0%1.41
- Over 2.544.5%2.25
- Over 3.523.3%4.29
- Over 4.510.3%9.71
- Under 1.529.0%3.44
- Under 2.555.5%1.80
- Under 3.576.7%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes45.8%2.18
- No54.2%1.84
- Yes and over 2.533.6%2.97
- AS Roma win and yes21.2%4.71
- Draw and yes16.7%6.00
- Lecce win and yes7.9%12.70
Team goals
- AS Roma over 0.580.4%1.24
- AS Roma over 1.548.5%2.06
- AS Roma over 2.522.5%4.45
- Lecce over 0.556.2%1.78
- Lecce over 1.520.0%5.00
- Lecce over 2.55.1%19.58
- AS Roma clean sheet43.8%2.28
- Lecce clean sheet19.6%5.11
- AS Roma win to nil34.6%2.89
- Lecce win to nil10.4%9.63
Handicap
- AS Roma −1.530.7%3.25
- AS Roma −2.513.3%7.54
- Lecce +1.569.3%1.44
- Lecce +2.586.7%1.15
- Lecce −1.55.8%17.14
- AS Roma +1.594.2%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored298
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right51.3%
BTTS called right51.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 45 | 37.8% | 35.6% |
| 40–50% | 96 | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 54.5% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 58 | 64.8% | 67.2% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 73.4% | 65.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 249 of 298 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5955 | 0.5791 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.6% | 52.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 249 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Bologna 0–2 Lazio40·30·29
- ✓Atalanta 1–0 Verona75·17·8
- ✓Como 5–0 Pisa76·17·7
- ✗Juventus 1–1 Sassuolo74·17·10
- ✓AC Milan 3–2 Torino63·23·13
- ✗Parma 0–2 Cremonese52·27·21
- ✗Genoa 0–2 Udinese51·28·21
- ✓Cagliari 0–1 Napoli22·27·50
- ✓Cremonese 1–4 Fiorentina27·28·45
- ✗Lazio 1–0 AC Milan27·29·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 298 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.