Aston Villa vs Brentford – 1 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 3rd · 46 pts · 23 played LWDLW

0–1Full time

Brentford 9th · 33 pts · 23 played DWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 72). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brentford. Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 155 km.

Away travel155 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 1

Aston Villa53%

Draw23%

Brentford24%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.25

Aston Villa60%

Draw23%

Brentford17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Aston Villa54%

Draw23%

Brentford23%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.22

Aston Villa45%

Draw24%

Brentford30%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.40

Aston Villa56%

Draw23%

Brentford21%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.10

Over 2.5 62% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 122

Team strength

Aston Villa

Brentford

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

83 AttackIn forecast 73

78 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Brentford

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.52

1.09 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.39

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.04 ShotsContext 10.48

4.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

37% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.95

12.91 Shots allowedContext 12.09

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.22 BlocksContext 4.30

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.05

71% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

441 PassesContext 396

375 Accurate passesContext 317

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.87 FoulsContext 11.09

13.65 Fouls sufferedContext 9.09

1.52 Yellow cardsContext 1.91

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 11.40

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

41% On target shareContext 42%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

64% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.30 BlocksContext 4.40

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

78% Save rateContext 79%

53% PossessionIn forecast 56%

454 PassesContext 481

387 Accurate passesContext 400

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.00 FoulsContext 9.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km5,846 km in 14d

Schedule load53%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel155 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 53	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,846 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 4 / 5	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

26L. Bogarde 21Douglas Luiz

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 19J. Sancho

18T. Abraham

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-1.0 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Brentford+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 2.27points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 8-1-2
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 0.82

Brentford · Away 0.82points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-8
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 1.82

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Aston Villa	Brentford
Newcastle	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 3–1 H
Everton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	W 4–2 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Manchester United	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
West Ham	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 A
Brighton	W 4–3 A	L 1–2 A
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Leeds	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Bournemouth	W 4–0 H	W 4–1 H
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 H
Manchester City	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Burnley	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Points	46 of 66 · 2.09 per game	30 of 66 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Aston Villa wins3 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.78 – 1.11 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

23 Aug 2025Brentford1–0Aston Villa
8 Mar 2025Brentford0–1Aston Villa
4 Dec 2024Aston Villa3–1Brentford
6 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–3Brentford
17 Dec 2023Brentford1–2Aston Villa
22 Apr 2023Brentford1–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.52
Conceded per game	1.09	1.39
Match goals	2.61	2.91	3.21
Over 1.5	70%	87%
Over 2.5	57%	52%	62%
Over 3.5	26%	39%
Both teams scored	52%	52%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	22%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	23	23

	Aston Villa	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.40
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.60	3.21
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.04	5.36
Corners conceded	4.74	4.82
Match total	9.78	10.18	10.00
Over 8.5	70% 16/23	73% 16/22
Over 9.5	65% 15/23	64% 14/22
Over 10.5	43% 10/23	59% 13/22
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.91
Opponent cards	2.43	1.78
Match total	4.00	3.69	3.85
Over 3.5	57% 13/23	52% 12/23
Over 4.5	35% 8/23	43% 10/23

	Aston Villa	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.33
Corners conceded	4.20	4.89
Match total	9.20	10.22	10.00
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	1.30
Match total	4.20	3.10	3.85
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 122 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 3.71

Red cards0.15league 0.11

Cards 5+43%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.3

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins48%league 45%

Aston Villa3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D23 Nov 24H · Crystal Palace2–23
W21 Sep 24H · Wolves3–13
W21 Apr 24H · Bournemouth3–11

Brentford2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 Apr 25H · Brighton4–23
L25 Nov 23H · Arsenal0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.