Aston Villa vs Brighton – 11 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 26 Wed, Feb 11 · 19:30 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 3rd · 47 pts · 25 played DLWLD

1–0Full time

Brighton 14th · 31 pts · 25 played DDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brighton. Aston Villa had 4.2 days of rest, Brighton 3.2 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Aston Villa55%

Draw23%

Brighton22%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.15

Aston Villa57%

Draw24%

Brighton19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Aston Villa55%

Draw23%

Brighton22%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.13

Aston Villa47%

Draw25%

Brighton28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.28

Aston Villa54%

Draw25%

Brighton22%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.05

Over 2.5 59% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 117

Team strength

Aston Villa

Brighton

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

83 AttackIn forecast 87

78 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Brighton

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

1.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

68% Scored inContext 80%

28% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.44 ShotsContext 13.00

4.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.28

36% On target shareContext 33%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.36

63% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.40

12.92 Shots allowedContext 12.16

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

4.08 BlocksContext 3.50

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

447 PassesContext 474

380 Accurate passesContext 400

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.84 FoulsContext 11.84

13.04 Fouls sufferedContext 10.28

1.44 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.40 ShotsContext 12.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

36% On target shareContext 31%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

65% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.29 OffsidesContext 2.30

13.30 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.80 BlocksContext 4.38

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

78% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 54%

488 PassesContext 489

420 Accurate passesContext 411

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.70 FoulsContext 11.80

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km392 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel219 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	392 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 26L. Bogarde

21Douglas Luiz 24A. Onana

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 19J. Sancho

11O. Watkins

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

13J. Hinshelwood 17C. Baleba 30P. Groß

22K. Mitoma 18D. Welbeck 25D. Gómez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa+0.0 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brighton+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 2.08points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 8-1-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.83

Brighton · Away 0.83points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-6
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.58

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Aston Villa	Brighton
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Brentford	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Newcastle	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 H
Everton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 A
Manchester United	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 A
West Ham	W 3–2 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Leeds	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 H
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Manchester City	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Burnley	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Points	44 of 72 · 1.83 per game	31 of 72 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Aston Villa wins2 draws1 Brighton wins

Goals per game2.30 – 0.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

3 Dec 2025Brighton3–4Aston Villa
2 Apr 2025Brighton0–3Aston Villa
30 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–2Brighton
5 May 2024Brighton1–0Aston Villa
30 Sep 2023Aston Villa6–1Brighton
28 May 2023Aston Villa2–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.36
Conceded per game	1.08	1.32
Match goals	2.52	2.68	3.07
Over 1.5	68%	88%
Over 2.5	52%	48%	59%
Over 3.5	24%	20%
Both teams scored	52%	68%	59%
Clean sheets	28%	20%
Failed to score	32%	20%
Games	25	25

	Aston Villa	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.40	2.10	3.07
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.28	4.92
Corners conceded	4.84	4.60
Match total	10.12	9.52	9.97
Over 8.5	72% 18/25	56% 14/25
Over 9.5	68% 17/25	52% 13/25
Over 10.5	48% 12/25	44% 11/25
Cards
Cards	1.48	2.40
Opponent cards	2.44	2.16
Match total	3.92	4.56	3.88
Over 3.5	56% 14/25	72% 18/25
Over 4.5	32% 8/25	44% 11/25

	Aston Villa	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.20
Corners conceded	4.30	5.00
Match total	9.70	9.20	9.97
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	3.70	4.70	3.88
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.07league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls21.4league 21.3

Penalties0.15league 0.22

Home wins51%league 43%

Aston Villa11 with this referee

Record6-2-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W6 Dec 25H · Arsenal2–10
W16 May 25H · Tottenham2–01
D26 Jan 25H · West Ham1–12
W21 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–13
W13 May 23H · Tottenham2–13

Brighton11 with this referee

Record5-2-4 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 4 Reds1

L13 Sep 25A · Bournemouth1–24
W19 Jan 25A · Manchester United3–13
L5 Dec 24A · Fulham1–32
W19 Oct 24A · Newcastle1–02
L28 Sep 24A · Chelsea2–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.