Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 66). Absences weigh more on Everton. Aston Villa had 10.9 days of rest, Everton 10.9 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days10.9 · 10.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Aston Villa66%
Draw20%
Everton14%
Aston Villa63%
Draw22%
Everton16%
Aston Villa64%
Draw21%
Everton15%
Aston Villa58%
Draw23%
Everton19%
Aston Villa64%
Draw21%
Everton15%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 82
Team strength
Aston Villa
Everton
87
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
83
AttackIn forecast
61
78
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaEverton
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
71%
Scored inContext
67%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.67
ShotsContext
10.86
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
37%
On target shareContext
29%
7.85
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
63%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.52
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.35
4.10
BlocksContext
4.57
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
443
PassesContext
372
377
Accurate passesContext
295
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.52
FoulsContext
10.29
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.52
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
45%
On target shareContext
28%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
69%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.60
BlocksContext
3.70
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
70%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
465
PassesContext
386
399
Accurate passesContext
308
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.90
FoulsContext
10.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest10.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest10.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel126 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 325 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
26L. Bogarde
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
15J. O'Brien
6J. Tarkowski
2N. Patterson
37J. Garner
34M. Röhl
18J. Grealish
45H. Armstrong
7D. McNeil
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Everton-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.80
Everton · Away
1.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Brighton | W 4–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–1 A | L 2–4 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 42 of 60 · 2.10 per game | 28 of 60 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Aston Villa wins3 draws0 Everton wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets80% · 30%
- 13 Sep 2025Everton0–0Aston Villa
- 15 Jan 2025Everton0–1Aston Villa
- 14 Sep 2024Aston Villa3–2Everton
- 14 Jan 2024Everton0–0Aston Villa
- 20 Aug 2023Aston Villa4–0Everton
- 25 Feb 2023Everton0–2Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.29 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.30 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.24 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.43 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 13/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 3.76 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Aston Villa | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.67 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.74
Red cards0.12league 0.11
Cards 5+28%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins43%league 45%
Aston Villa3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L23 Aug 25A · Brentford0–12
- W17 Aug 24A · West Ham2–12
- W16 Sep 22H · Southampton1–03
Everton7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W24 Nov 25A · Manchester United1–01
- L18 Oct 25A · Manchester City0–22
- W25 May 25A · Newcastle1–04
- L29 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest0–24
- D2 Apr 24A · Newcastle1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa21 games · scored 33 · conceded 24
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
4
46-60
6
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
Everton21 games · scored 23 · conceded 25
3
3
0-15
5
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
