Atalanta vs AS Roma – 3 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 3 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 10th · 22 pts · 17 played WLWWL

1–0Full time

AS Roma 4th · 33 pts · 17 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Atalanta had 6 days of rest, AS Roma 5 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atalanta41%

Draw28%

AS Roma32%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.19

Atalanta41%

Draw27%

AS Roma32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Atalanta40%

Draw28%

AS Roma32%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.18

Atalanta34%

Draw28%

AS Roma38%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.34

Atalanta41%

Draw27%

AS Roma32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.25

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 63

Team strength

Atalanta

AS Roma

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

48 AttackIn forecast 72

45 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

AS Roma

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.65

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

76% Scored inContext 71%

24% Clean sheetsContext 41%

14.47 ShotsContext 13.29

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88

30% On target shareContext 37%

9.29 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

64% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.27 OffsidesContext 1.92

10.47 Shots allowedContext 10.76

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.94

3.00 BlocksContext 2.64

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.35

75% Save rateContext 85%

57% PossessionIn forecast 58%

495 PassesContext 487

426 Accurate passesContext 408

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.35 FoulsContext 14.18

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.59

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.10 ShotsContext 11.90

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

31% On target shareContext 38%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

65% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.86

10.50 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.11 BlocksContext 3.33

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

69% Save rateContext 87%

56% PossessionIn forecast 55%

499 PassesContext 482

427 Accurate passesContext 404

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.80 FoulsContext 13.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km309 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel481 km1,051 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec	5Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	309 km	1,051 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 24J. Ziółkowski 23G. Mancini

2D. Rensch 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

21P. Dybala 18M. Soulé

11E. Ferguson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
AS Roma-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.44points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-2
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 1.00

AS Roma · Away 1.88points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-3
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	AS Roma
Inter	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Verona	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Napoli	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 A
Udinese	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 A
Lazio	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
Como	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Torino	W 3–0 A	L 0–1 H
Parma	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Pisa	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Points	19 of 48 · 1.19 per game	30 of 48 · 1.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Atalanta wins1 draws2 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.13 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%

12 May 2025Atalanta2–1AS Roma
2 Dec 2024AS Roma0–2Atalanta
12 May 2024Atalanta2–1AS Roma
7 Jan 2024AS Roma1–1Atalanta
24 Apr 2023Atalanta3–1AS Roma
18 Sep 2022AS Roma0–1Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	1.18
Conceded per game	1.12	0.65
Match goals	2.29	1.82	2.58
Over 1.5	76%	41%
Over 2.5	35%	29%	48%
Over 3.5	18%	12%
Both teams scored	59%	29%	53%
Clean sheets	24%	41%
Failed to score	24%	29%
Games	17	17

	Atalanta	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.70
Conceded per game	1.40	0.70
Match goals	2.30	2.40	2.58
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.18
Corners conceded	4.06	3.24
Match total	10.06	8.42	8.85
Over 8.5	69% 11/16	41% 7/17
Over 9.5	50% 8/16	24% 4/17
Over 10.5	31% 5/16	24% 4/17
Cards
Cards	1.59	2.18
Opponent cards	1.47	2.29
Match total	3.06	4.47	4.02
Over 3.5	47% 8/17	65% 11/17
Over 4.5	0% 0/17	53% 9/17

	Atalanta	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.40
Corners conceded	4.50	3.10
Match total	9.10	7.50	8.85
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.50
Opponent cards	1.60	1.80
Match total	2.80	4.30	4.02
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 3.89

Red cards0.32league 0.16

Cards 5+35%league 38%

Fouls24.2league 25.8

Penalties0.13league 0.30

Home wins37%league 39%

Atalanta3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

L1 Nov 25A · Udinese0–13
W28 Apr 24H · Empoli2–01
W9 Jan 22A · Udinese6–22

AS Roma8 with this referee

Record4-3-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W27 Apr 25A · Inter1–02
D2 Feb 25H · Napoli1–12
D29 Dec 24A · AC Milan1–14
W31 Oct 24H · Torino1–02
L12 Mar 23H · Sassuolo3–45

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.