Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel911 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Atalanta—%
Draw—%
Lecce—%
Weather (Bergamo)
Forecast from 8 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Atalanta and Lecce. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Atalanta
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
-
Alert
Lecce
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lecce
−0.49
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.32xG against1.81
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Lecce
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lecce
−0.49
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.32xG against1.81
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AtalantaLecce
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
48
AttackIn forecast
36
45
DefenceIn forecast
30
21
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaLecce
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
86%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.14
ShotsContext
11.14
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
35%
On target shareContext
42%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
60%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
18.00
Shots allowedContext
14.86
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.43
5.17
BlocksContext
2.83
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
76%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
475
PassesContext
346
420
Accurate passesContext
271
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.29
FoulsContext
12.86
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
9.14
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.40
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
43%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.33
BlocksContext
2.67
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
78%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
472
PassesContext
312
414
Accurate passesContext
239
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.80
FoulsContext
12.10
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
LLLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,172 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Lecce
LWLLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel911 km1,851 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 16 May | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 911 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,172 km | 1,851 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Last XI · not confirmed
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
47L. Bernasconi
23S. Kolašinac
31T. Kristensen
16R. Bellanova
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
10L. Samardžić
11J. Rowe
90N. Krstović
17C. De Ketelaere
Lecce
Last XI · not confirmed
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh
79Oumar Ngom
29L. Coulibaly
7A. Fatah
69W. Geubbels
11K. N’Dri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lecce
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lecce · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 2–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Venezia | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Atalanta wins1 draws2 Lecce wins
Goals per game2.13 – 0.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 6 Apr 2026Lecce0–3Atalanta
- 14 Sep 2025Atalanta4–1Lecce
- 27 Apr 2025Atalanta1–1Lecce
- 19 Aug 2024Lecce0–4Atalanta
- 18 May 2024Lecce0–2Atalanta
- 30 Dec 2023Atalanta1–0Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Atalanta | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 7.86 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 1.57 | 2.72 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Atalanta | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Atalanta7 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lecce7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
5
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
