La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 7 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel115 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Osasuna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Osasuna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubOsasuna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
51 AttackIn forecast 50
64 DefenceIn forecast 50
70 Form indexContext 31
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubOsasuna
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
57% Scored inContext 67%
57% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.71 ShotsContext 10.78
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
29% On target shareContext 40%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
65% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 10%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.63
10.43 Shots allowedContext 13.22
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
1.80 BlocksContext 3.89
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
83% Save rateContext 51%
54% PossessionIn forecast 46%
494 PassesContext 390
420 Accurate passesContext 316
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.54
11.43 FoulsContext 14.67
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.67
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
60% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.60 ShotsContext 10.80
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
30% On target shareContext 41%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
69% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 9%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.44
10.10 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
1.71 BlocksContext 3.70
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
72% Save rateContext 53%
50% PossessionIn forecast 46%
448 PassesContext 373
372 Accurate passesContext 298
83% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.54
12.70 FoulsContext 15.20
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,406 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel115 km658 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km115 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,406 km658 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Osasuna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Osasuna · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.50
Conceded
3.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubOsasuna
Alaves D 0–0 H L 2–5 A
Atletico Madrid W 3–0 H L 0–4 A
Celta Vigo W 2–0 A W 2–1 A
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Athletic Club wins4 draws1 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.70 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 30%
  • 21 Apr 2026Athletic Club1–0Osasuna
  • 3 Jan 2026Osasuna1–1Athletic Club
  • 30 Mar 2025Athletic Club0–0Osasuna
  • 21 Dec 2024Osasuna1–2Athletic Club
  • 11 May 2024Athletic Club2–2Osasuna
  • 19 Aug 2023Osasuna0–2Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.11
Conceded per game 0.862.00
Match goals 1.863.11
Over 1.5 71%78%
Over 2.5 29%44%
Over 3.5 14%33%
Both teams scored 29%44%
Clean sheets 57%33%
Failed to score 43%33%
Games79
Athletic ClubOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.301.90
Match goals 2.302.90
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 30%40%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 40%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.144.00
Corners conceded4.434.50
Match total10.578.509.91
Over 8.557% 4/738% 3/8
Over 9.557% 4/738% 3/8
Over 10.557% 4/738% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.292.67
Opponent cards1.862.00
Match total4.154.674.73
Over 3.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 4.543% 3/756% 5/9
Athletic ClubOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.00
Corners conceded4.564.22
Match total10.458.229.91
Over 8.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 9.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 10.556% 5/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.802.60
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total3.504.504.73
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Atletico Madrid Feb 716:00 Athletic Club Osasuna Feb 716:00 Valencia Racing Santander Feb 716:00 Espanyol Rayo Vallecano Feb 716:00 Alaves Celta Vigo Feb 716:00 Real Betis Sevilla Feb 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Malaga Feb 716:00 Getafe Villarreal Feb 716:00 Real Sociedad Real Madrid Feb 716:00 Elche Levante Feb 716:00