Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel500 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Alaves—%
Draw—%
Celta Vigo—%
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
Forecast from 23 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Celta Vigo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AlavesCelta Vigo
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
48
AttackIn forecast
36
55
DefenceIn forecast
61
14
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesCelta Vigo
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.78
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
78%
Scored inContext
56%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
12.78
ShotsContext
9.44
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
62%
Box shareContext
47%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.50
BlocksContext
3.44
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
74%
Save rateContext
80%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
340
PassesContext
506
270
Accurate passesContext
438
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.67
FoulsContext
12.22
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.44
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.40
ShotsContext
10.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
40%
On target shareContext
32%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
61%
Box shareContext
50%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.78
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.22
BlocksContext
3.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
74%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
341
PassesContext
497
271
Accurate passesContext
431
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.60
FoulsContext
11.90
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
LLDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,395 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
Celta Vigo
LWDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel500 km847 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 500 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,395 km | 847 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Last XI · not confirmed
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Celta Vigo
Last XI · not confirmed
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celta Vigo
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Celta Vigo · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-0
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Racing Santander | L 1–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 5–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Alaves wins2 draws6 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2026Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
- 22 Mar 2026Celta Vigo3–4Alaves
- 22 Nov 2025Alaves0–1Celta Vigo
- 27 Jan 2025Alaves1–1Celta Vigo
- 16 Aug 2024Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
- 27 Apr 2024Alaves3–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 1.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Alaves | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 7.88 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 3.89 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Alaves | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.89 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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