La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 7 · 16:00 Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel504 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Barcelona—%
Draw—%
Atletico Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Barcelona)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
97 AttackIn forecast 82
92 DefenceIn forecast 87
96 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
4.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89
3.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
100% Scored inContext 89%
44% Clean sheetsContext 44%
21.11 ShotsContext 17.56
8.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44
40% On target shareContext 37%
14.56 Shots in the boxContext 10.33
70% Box shareContext 60%
21% ConversionContext 12%
3.11 OffsidesContext 2.00
6.78 Shots allowedContext 9.56
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
1.60 BlocksContext 2.89
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22
68% Save rateContext 71%
70% PossessionIn forecast 60%
697 PassesContext 590
632 Accurate passesContext 521
91% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.42 Team ratingContext 7.05
9.67 FoulsContext 12.11
10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
4.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
3.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.75 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
22.40 ShotsContext 16.10
8.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
40% On target shareContext 37%
15.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
67% Box shareContext 58%
19% ConversionContext 12%
3.30 OffsidesContext 2.20
6.30 Shots allowedContext 10.20
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
1.43 BlocksContext 2.90
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
64% Save rateContext 71%
72% PossessionIn forecast 60%
712 PassesContext 588
651 Accurate passesContext 517
91% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.38 Team ratingContext 7.04
9.50 FoulsContext 11.30
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km861 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel504 km1,017 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Barcelona Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km504 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways861 km1,017 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.25
Conceded
1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away 2.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBarcelonaAtletico Madrid
Sevilla W 3–1 A W 3–1 A
Athletic Club W 2–0 H L 0–3 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 14 meetings

8 Barcelona wins0 draws2 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%
  • 14 Apr 2026Atletico Madrid1–2Barcelona
  • 8 Apr 2026Barcelona0–2Atletico Madrid
  • 4 Apr 2026Atletico Madrid1–2Barcelona
  • 2 Dec 2025Barcelona3–1Atletico Madrid
  • 16 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid2–4Barcelona
  • 21 Dec 2024Barcelona1–2Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BarcelonaAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 4.332.11
Conceded per game 1.000.89
Match goals 5.333.00
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 89%78%
Over 3.5 78%33%
Both teams scored 56%44%
Clean sheets 44%44%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
BarcelonaAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 4.302.00
Conceded per game 1.101.00
Match goals 5.403.00
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 90%80%
Over 3.5 80%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BarcelonaAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.57
Corners conceded2.883.57
Match total8.889.149.91
Over 8.538% 3/843% 3/7
Over 9.538% 3/843% 3/7
Over 10.538% 3/843% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.332.33
Opponent cards1.781.89
Match total3.114.224.73
Over 3.544% 4/967% 6/9
Over 4.533% 3/944% 4/9
BarcelonaAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.335.00
Corners conceded2.444.25
Match total8.779.259.91
Over 8.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 9.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 10.533% 3/950% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.302.20
Opponent cards1.801.70
Match total3.103.904.73
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Atletico Madrid Feb 716:00 Athletic Club Osasuna Feb 716:00 Valencia Racing Santander Feb 716:00 Espanyol Rayo Vallecano Feb 716:00 Alaves Celta Vigo Feb 716:00 Real Betis Sevilla Feb 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Malaga Feb 716:00 Getafe Villarreal Feb 716:00 Real Sociedad Real Madrid Feb 716:00 Elche Levante Feb 716:00