La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 7 · 16:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Real Sociedad—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Sociedad and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real SociedadReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
62 AttackIn forecast 89
48 DefenceIn forecast 85
81 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real SociedadReal Madrid
1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 2.41
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
+0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
67% Scored inContext 89%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.11 ShotsContext 17.56
5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22
39% On target shareContext 41%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.33
56% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 15%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.13
16.56 Shots allowedContext 12.78
6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.00 BlocksContext 3.44
4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
73% Save rateContext 73%
49% PossessionIn forecast 53%
467 PassesContext 528
399 Accurate passesContext 476
85% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.89 Team ratingContext 7.17
12.11 FoulsContext 8.44
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.80 ShotsContext 16.90
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
38% On target shareContext 43%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
55% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 16%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.20
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
3.90 BlocksContext 3.80
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
70% Save rateContext 75%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
481 PassesContext 501
410 Accurate passesContext 446
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.13
12.40 FoulsContext 8.90
10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,483 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel352 km5,725 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Sociedad Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,483 km5,725 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentReal SociedadReal Madrid
Malaga W 5–2 A W 4–0 H
Atletico Madrid L 0–3 H L 1–2 A
Elche W 3–2 A W 3–2 A
Espanyol W 2–1 H W 2–1 A
Real Betis L 0–1 A L 0–1 A
Points9 of 15 · 1.80 per game9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

1 Real Sociedad wins1 draws8 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.70 – 2.10 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%
  • 26 Aug 2026Real Madrid4–1Real Sociedad
  • 14 Feb 2026Real Madrid4–1Real Sociedad
  • 13 Sep 2025Real Sociedad1–2Real Madrid
  • 24 May 2025Real Madrid2–0Real Sociedad
  • 14 Sep 2024Real Sociedad0–2Real Madrid
  • 26 Apr 2024Real Sociedad0–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real SociedadReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.892.56
Conceded per game 1.891.00
Match goals 3.783.56
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 33%11%
Games99
Real SociedadReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.902.70
Conceded per game 1.901.20
Match goals 3.803.90
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real SociedadReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won7.006.25
Corners conceded4.894.25
Match total11.8910.509.91
Over 8.5100% 9/963% 5/8
Over 9.578% 7/963% 5/8
Over 10.567% 6/963% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.332.33
Opponent cards2.562.67
Match total4.895.004.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.578% 7/967% 6/9
Real SociedadReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won7.006.30
Corners conceded4.705.00
Match total11.7011.309.91
Over 8.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 9.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 10.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards2.402.50
Match total4.604.704.73
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Atletico Madrid Feb 716:00 Athletic Club Osasuna Feb 716:00 Valencia Racing Santander Feb 716:00 Espanyol Rayo Vallecano Feb 716:00 Alaves Celta Vigo Feb 716:00 Real Betis Sevilla Feb 716:00 Deportivo La Coruna Malaga Feb 716:00 Getafe Villarreal Feb 716:00 Real Sociedad Real Madrid Feb 716:00 Elche Levante Feb 716:00