AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
Nacional were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 11). AVS had 7.8 days of rest, Nacional 5.9 and had to travel.
Rest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
AVS31%
Draw28%
Nacional41%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Nacional42%
AVS31%
Draw28%
Nacional41%
AVS25%
Draw27%
Nacional48%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Nacional42%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.70
- Matches 10
Team strength
AVS
Nacional
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
17
AttackIn forecast
15
21
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSNacional
0.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
2.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
50%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.36
ShotsContext
10.86
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
31%
On target shareContext
34%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.08
62%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.14
Shots allowedContext
14.93
5.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
3.07
BlocksContext
4.64
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
56%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
324
PassesContext
288
251
Accurate passesContext
212
77%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.71
FoulsContext
14.29
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.79
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.30
ShotsContext
11.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
67%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.70
Shots allowedContext
14.30
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.10
BlocksContext
4.40
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
57%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
337
PassesContext
308
264
Accurate passesContext
228
78%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.40
FoulsContext
12.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—1,984 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,984 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 12.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
3Paulo Vitor
35Rúben Semedo
42C. Devenish
24Kiki
8Pedro Lima
15Jaume Grau
2Diogo Spencer
14Ó. Perea
7Tómané
11B. Akinsola
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
2João Aurélio
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
11Paulinho Bóia
28Liziero
99Pablo Ruan
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.00
Nacional · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 1–4 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Arouca | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 36 · 0.25 per game | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2025Nacional3–1AVS
- 10 Aug 2024AVS1–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.64 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.64 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.43 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 36% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| AVS | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.30 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.07 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.28 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 3.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.86 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.07 | 6.14 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 86% 12/14 | |
| AVS | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.40 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 6.10 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 5.20
Red cards1.10league 0.30
Cards 5+80%league 63%
Fouls28.3league 27.5
Penalties0.70league 0.46
Home wins30%league 37%
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L17 May 25H · Moreirense0–36
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25H · Arouca1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS14 games · scored 9 · conceded 37
1
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
1
7
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
5
76-90
Nacional14 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 29
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
