Ararat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel3,208 kmRest days14 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Ararat-Armenia—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Weather (Yerevan)
Forecast from 25 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Ararat-Armenia and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
NEC Nijmegen
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Ararat-Armenia
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Ararat-Armenia
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Ararat-Armenia
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
NEC Nijmegen
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Ararat-Armenia
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Ararat-Armenia
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Ararat-Armenia
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Goals conceded away per match
Last 7 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Ararat-Armenia
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Ararat-ArmeniaNEC Nijmegen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
7
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
8
AttackIn forecast
37
8
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
18
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ararat-ArmeniaNEC Nijmegen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
21%
On target shareContext
41%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
53%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
—
OffsidesContext
—
18.50
Shots allowedContext
9.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
6.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
39%
Save rateContext
33%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
434
PassesContext
493
375
Accurate passesContext
423
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.47
Team ratingContext
6.37
14.50
FoulsContext
16.50
19.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.84
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
27%
On target shareContext
32%
—
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
—
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.43
17.67
Shots allowedContext
12.70
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.80
BlocksContext
2.80
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
39%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
—
PassesContext
442
—
Accurate passesContext
358
—
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.21
Team ratingContext
6.44
11.00
FoulsContext
11.70
16.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ararat-Armenia
LL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km5,281 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 23 · 0 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
NEC Nijmegen
LDDDD
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel3,208 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ararat-Armenia |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov | 5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 3,208 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,281 km | 189 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ararat-Armenia
Last XI · not confirmed
98João Bravim(G)
5Luis Felipe
17M. Carlier
43Bruno Wilson
16E. Grigoryan
20A. Tera
8J. Balanta
2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
NEC Nijmegen
Last XI · not confirmed
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
22A. Kaplan
21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro
18D. Geiger
6D. Nejašmić
34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff
20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ararat-Armenia
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Ararat-Armenia · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ararat-Armenia | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Ararat-Armenia | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ararat-Armenia | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 1.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Ararat-Armenia | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 7.88 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 2.90 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Ararat-Armenia2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
NEC Nijmegen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Marseille
Celta Vigo
Dec 1017:45
Rennes
Dinamo Zagreb
Dec 1017:45
AZ Alkmaar
Sturm Graz
Dec 1017:45
Jagiellonia
Crystal Palace
Dec 1017:45
Anderlecht
1899 Hoffenheim
Dec 1017:45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Juventus
Dec 1017:45
Omonia Nicosia
Celtic
Dec 1017:45
Ararat-Armenia
NEC Nijmegen
Dec 1017:45
Bournemouth
Plzen
Dec 1020:00
Lyon
Union St. Gilloise
Dec 1020:00
Bayer Leverkusen
Besiktas
Dec 1020:00
Benfica
OFI
Dec 1020:00
Lech Poznan
Ferencvarosi TC
Dec 1020:00
AC Milan
Sunderland
Dec 1020:00
Real Sociedad
Torreense
Dec 1020:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Sparta Praha
Dec 1020:00
Levski Sofia
Lillestrom
Dec 1020:00
Celje
Olympiakos Piraeus
Dec 1020:00