La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Celta Vigo 8th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel906 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Barcelona—%
Draw—%
Celta Vigo—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Barcelona)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Barcelona and Celta Vigo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BarcelonaCelta Vigo
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
97 AttackIn forecast 36
92 DefenceIn forecast 61
96 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BarcelonaCelta Vigo
4.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78
3.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.92
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
100% Scored inContext 56%
44% Clean sheetsContext 44%
21.11 ShotsContext 9.44
8.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63
40% On target shareContext 34%
14.56 Shots in the boxContext 4.67
70% Box shareContext 47%
21% ConversionContext 12%
3.11 OffsidesContext 3.00
6.78 Shots allowedContext 13.33
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
1.60 BlocksContext 3.44
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44
68% Save rateContext 80%
70% PossessionIn forecast 50%
697 PassesContext 506
632 Accurate passesContext 438
91% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.42 Team ratingContext 6.87
9.67 FoulsContext 12.22
10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 14.44
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
4.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
3.55 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.75 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
100% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
22.40 ShotsContext 10.40
8.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
40% On target shareContext 32%
15.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
67% Box shareContext 50%
19% ConversionContext 11%
3.30 OffsidesContext 3.00
6.30 Shots allowedContext 14.50
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
1.43 BlocksContext 3.80
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
64% Save rateContext 77%
72% PossessionIn forecast 49%
712 PassesContext 497
651 Accurate passesContext 431
91% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.38 Team ratingContext 6.82
9.50 FoulsContext 11.90
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km9,713 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts
Celta Vigo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel906 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Barcelona Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km906 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways9,713 km930 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 41 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.24.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus
Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celta Vigo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.25
Conceded
1.00
Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-4-0
Scored
0.25
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentBarcelonaCelta Vigo
Getafe W 3–0 H D 1–1 A
Racing Santander W 7–2 H W 5–0 H
Valencia W 5–0 A D 0–0 A
Athletic Club W 2–0 H L 0–2 H
Elche W 5–0 A D 0–0 A
Points15 of 15 · 3.00 per game6 of 15 · 1.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

7 Barcelona wins2 draws1 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.60 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 22 Apr 2026Barcelona1–0Celta Vigo
  • 9 Nov 2025Celta Vigo2–4Barcelona
  • 19 Apr 2025Barcelona4–3Celta Vigo
  • 23 Nov 2024Celta Vigo2–2Barcelona
  • 17 Feb 2024Celta Vigo1–2Barcelona
  • 23 Sep 2023Barcelona3–2Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BarcelonaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 4.331.11
Conceded per game 1.000.78
Match goals 5.331.89
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 89%33%
Over 3.5 78%11%
Both teams scored 56%44%
Clean sheets 44%44%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games99
BarcelonaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 4.301.10
Conceded per game 1.101.00
Match goals 5.402.10
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 90%40%
Over 3.5 80%10%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BarcelonaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won6.003.13
Corners conceded2.884.75
Match total8.887.889.91
Over 8.538% 3/825% 2/8
Over 9.538% 3/825% 2/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.331.78
Opponent cards1.782.11
Match total3.113.894.73
Over 3.544% 4/944% 4/9
Over 4.533% 3/944% 4/9
BarcelonaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won6.333.67
Corners conceded2.445.22
Match total8.778.899.91
Over 8.533% 3/933% 3/9
Over 9.533% 3/933% 3/9
Over 10.533% 3/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.301.60
Opponent cards1.801.90
Match total3.103.504.73
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1 0-15
3 16-30
3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Celta Vigo Dec 616:00 Atletico Madrid Real Betis Dec 616:00 Athletic Club Real Madrid Dec 616:00 Villarreal Real Sociedad Dec 616:00 Sevilla Malaga Dec 616:00 Alaves Espanyol Dec 616:00 Getafe Valencia Dec 616:00 Osasuna Elche Dec 616:00 Rayo Vallecano Levante Dec 616:00 Racing Santander Deportivo La Coruna Dec 616:00