La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel323 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
51 AttackIn forecast 89
64 DefenceIn forecast 85
70 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubReal Madrid
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 2.41
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
57% Scored inContext 89%
57% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.71 ShotsContext 17.56
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22
29% On target shareContext 41%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 12.33
65% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 15%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.13
10.43 Shots allowedContext 12.78
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
1.80 BlocksContext 3.44
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
83% Save rateContext 73%
54% PossessionIn forecast 53%
494 PassesContext 528
420 Accurate passesContext 476
85% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.17
11.43 FoulsContext 8.44
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
60% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.60 ShotsContext 16.90
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
30% On target shareContext 43%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
69% Box shareContext 71%
7% ConversionContext 16%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.10 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
1.71 BlocksContext 3.80
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
72% Save rateContext 75%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
448 PassesContext 501
372 Accurate passesContext 446
83% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.77 Team ratingContext 7.13
12.70 FoulsContext 8.90
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,477 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel323 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km323 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,477 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one73.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Elche D 1–1 H W 3–2 A
Atletico Madrid W 3–0 H L 1–2 A
Sevilla L 1–3 H W 4–1 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Athletic Club wins1 draws8 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.90 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%
  • 23 May 2026Real Madrid4–2Athletic Club
  • 3 Dec 2025Athletic Club0–3Real Madrid
  • 20 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–0Athletic Club
  • 4 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Madrid
  • 31 Mar 2024Real Madrid2–0Athletic Club
  • 12 Aug 2023Athletic Club0–2Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.002.56
Conceded per game 0.861.00
Match goals 1.863.56
Over 1.5 71%78%
Over 2.5 29%78%
Over 3.5 14%56%
Both teams scored 29%67%
Clean sheets 57%22%
Failed to score 43%11%
Games79
Athletic ClubReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.002.70
Conceded per game 1.301.20
Match goals 2.303.90
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 30%80%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 40%70%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.146.25
Corners conceded4.434.25
Match total10.5710.509.91
Over 8.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 9.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 10.557% 4/763% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.292.33
Opponent cards1.862.67
Match total4.155.004.73
Over 3.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 4.543% 3/767% 6/9
Athletic ClubReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won5.896.30
Corners conceded4.565.00
Match total10.4511.309.91
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 10.556% 5/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards1.702.50
Match total3.504.704.73
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Celta Vigo Dec 616:00 Atletico Madrid Real Betis Dec 616:00 Athletic Club Real Madrid Dec 616:00 Villarreal Real Sociedad Dec 616:00 Sevilla Malaga Dec 616:00 Alaves Espanyol Dec 616:00 Getafe Valencia Dec 616:00 Osasuna Elche Dec 616:00 Rayo Vallecano Levante Dec 616:00 Racing Santander Deportivo La Coruna Dec 616:00