Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel766 kmRest days2.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Celta Vigo—%
Draw—%
Villarreal—%
Weather (Vigo)
Forecast from 14 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celta Vigo and Villarreal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Villarreal
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Celta VigoVillarreal
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
36
AttackIn forecast
76
61
DefenceIn forecast
73
47
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoVillarreal
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
56%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
9.44
ShotsContext
16.33
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
34%
On target shareContext
39%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.11
47%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.89
13.33
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.44
BlocksContext
5.14
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
80%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
506
PassesContext
573
438
Accurate passesContext
510
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.22
FoulsContext
11.11
14.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.40
ShotsContext
16.50
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
36%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
50%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.90
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.80
BlocksContext
4.63
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
77%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
497
PassesContext
560
431
Accurate passesContext
493
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.90
FoulsContext
10.40
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
LWDLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Villarreal
WWLWD
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel766 km3,699 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 16 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 766 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 3,699 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Last XI · not confirmed
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Villarreal
Last XI · not confirmed
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
2Logan Costa
8J. Foyth
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
16Carlos Macia
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Villarreal
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Villarreal · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Racing Santander | W 5–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Malaga | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
2 Celta Vigo wins3 draws5 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 26 Apr 2026Villarreal2–1Celta Vigo
- 31 Aug 2025Celta Vigo1–1Villarreal
- 23 Apr 2025Celta Vigo3–0Villarreal
- 26 Aug 2024Villarreal4–3Celta Vigo
- 5 May 2024Celta Vigo3–2Villarreal
- 20 Dec 2023Villarreal3–2Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 2.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 11.55 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 4.78 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 11.20 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.60 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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