Villarreal vs Real Sociedad

La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

VS— Compare

Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel406 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Villarreal—%

Draw—%

Real Sociedad—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Sociedad 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Villarreal

Real Sociedad

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

76 AttackIn forecast 62

73 DefenceIn forecast 48

79 Form indexContext 81

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Real Sociedad

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

67% Scored inContext 67%

11% Clean sheetsContext 11%

16.33 ShotsContext 14.11

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44

39% On target shareContext 39%

11.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

68% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.00 Shots allowedContext 16.56

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22

5.14 BlocksContext 4.00

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

77% Save rateContext 73%

60% PossessionIn forecast 49%

573 PassesContext 467

510 Accurate passesContext 399

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.11 FoulsContext 12.11

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.62

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.50 ShotsContext 13.80

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

36% On target shareContext 38%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

67% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.00 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

4.63 BlocksContext 3.90

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

72% Save rateContext 70%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

560 PassesContext 481

493 Accurate passesContext 410

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.40 FoulsContext 12.40

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,231 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel406 km2,141 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov	7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	406 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,231 km	2,141 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.1	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-2
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Real Sociedad
Elche	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Real Madrid	L 0–1 A	L 1–4 A
Malaga	W 3–1 A	W 5–2 A
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Deportivo La Coruna	L 2–3 H	W 3–2 H
Atletico Madrid	D 2–2 A	L 0–3 H
Points	5 of 18 · 0.83 per game	9 of 18 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Villarreal wins1 draws4 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.40 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

20 Mar 2026Villarreal3–1Real Sociedad
30 Nov 2025Real Sociedad2–3Villarreal
20 Apr 2025Villarreal2–2Real Sociedad
13 Jan 2025Real Sociedad1–0Villarreal
23 Feb 2024Real Sociedad1–3Villarreal
9 Dec 2023Villarreal0–3Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Real Sociedad
Scored per game	1.44	1.89
Conceded per game	1.44	1.89
Match goals	2.89	3.78
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	67%	78%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	67%	67%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	9	9

	Villarreal	Real Sociedad
Scored per game	1.60	1.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.90
Match goals	3.10	3.80
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	80%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	7.00
Corners conceded	4.44	4.89
Match total	11.55	11.89	9.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.33
Opponent cards	3.00	2.56
Match total	4.78	4.89	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9

	Villarreal	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	7.00
Corners conceded	4.70	4.70
Match total	11.20	11.70	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.90	2.40
Match total	4.60	4.60	4.73
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.